银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250515

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain abundant with a high in - production存栏量. The spot price has started to decline in recent days, and the 06 contract is trading based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Fundamental Information - Price: The average price in the main production areas is 3.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. The national mainstream prices mostly remained stable, with some regional variations [6]. - In - production Laying Hens: In April, the national in - production laying hen存栏量 was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and 7.2% year - on - year. The estimated存栏量 for May - August 2025 is 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - Chick Hatchlings: In April, the monthly chick hatchling output of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 1.4% increase from the previous month and 2.5% year - on - year [7]. - Hen Culling: In the week of May 9, the national main production area hen culling volume was 17.25 million, a 4% increase from the previous week. The average culling age in the week of May 8 was 536 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Egg Sales: As of the week of May 1, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 8,816 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of May 1, the average production - link weekly inventory was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous week, and the average circulation - link weekly inventory was 1.33 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of May 1, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 2, the expected profit per laying hen was 20.08 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - Culled Hen Price: The national culled hen price increased, with the main production area average price at 5.14 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2. Trading Logic With sufficient overall egg supply and high in - production存栏量, and the recent decline in spot prices, the 06 contract is trading based on the near - month delivery logic. It is advisable to go short on rallies [10]. 3.3. Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Hold the previous short positions and consider partial profit - taking [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [11]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [11].