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供应端压力有限,粕类偏强运行
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-15 13:32

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure of meal products is limited, and they are running strongly. The international soybean supply pressure is improving, but the price pressure in Brazil still exists. The domestic meal products are expected to have limited further weakening space, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [2][5][9]. - In the short - term, the domestic futures market of meal products is in a volatile state. The short - term support for the US soybean market is obvious, and the supply and demand of the international soybean market are in a state of dynamic adjustment [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures prices dropped significantly, mainly affected by the news of possible adjustments to the US biodiesel policy. The domestic futures market was in a volatile state, with the rapeseed meal market stronger than the soybean meal market. The spread between soybean meal contracts was narrowly volatile, while the spread between rapeseed meal contracts was relatively strong [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The near - term support for the US soybean market is obvious. The export of US old - crop soybeans is expected to be stable, and the adjustment pressure on the balance sheet is small. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has accelerated but is still at a low level in the same period of history. Brazilian soybean exports may increase due to weak domestic crushing profits. The domestic crushing in Argentina may slow down, and soybean exports may increase [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic spot market has improved. The oil refinery operating rate has decreased, but the supply is sufficient. The inventory of soybean meal is relatively low, and the spot price is not likely to weaken rapidly. The demand for rapeseed meal is strong in the near - term, but the supply pressure still exists [7]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The reduction of tariffs between China and the US has a limited impact on the meal products market. The domestic soybean supply is less affected by policies due to the expansion of new supply sources, but the long - term price of soybean meal is still supported by policies [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The international market pressure has weakened, and the pressure transmitted to the domestic market is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good, so the domestic soybean meal is not likely to weaken further. The long - term supply of rapeseed meal is tightening, but the demand is weak, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Buy on dips. - Arbitrage: Long M11 and short M01. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [10][11].