Core View - High tariffs still pose a threat to copper prices, and the market sentiment will improve after the tariff risk decreases. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [2][5] Market Overview - On May 15, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,900 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 79,090 yuan/ton and a minimum of 77,860 yuan/ton, closing at 77,870 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%. The trading volume for the day was 110,000 lots, with a reduction of 2,000 lots. The open interest was 187,000 lots, a reduction of 7,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson expects tariffs to slow the economy, and the inflation outlook is unclear [3] Supply Aspect - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports in the current week was 897,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared to April 25. The TC dropped to 44 dollars/ton [3] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 215,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 4.97%. The domestic electrolytic copper foil production was 100,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, including 39,300 tons of electronic circuit copper foil and 60,900 tons of lithium - ion copper foil. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper foil production in May will be 99,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. In April, the domestic copper tube production was 201,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,100 tons with an increase rate of 4.16%, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.27%, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. It is expected that the copper tube production in May will decrease to about 192,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be 83.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. In April, the actual production of domestic recycled copper rods was 203,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11% and a year - on - year increase of 1.81% [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 15, LME copper inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 10,466 tons to 60,535 tons [4] Future Outlook - After the tariff risk decreases, the market sentiment will improve. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [5]
高关税仍对铜价构成威胁
Guang Jin Qi Huo·2025-05-15 13:31