黑色金属数据日报-20250515

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - For the steel market, risk preference has generally strengthened. On Wednesday, futures prices opened low and closed high, with some under - performing furnace material varieties making up for losses. Spot trading volume increased compared to Tuesday, and steel inventory and apparent demand data improved but did not return to pre - May Day levels. After the long - holiday impact, steel union's apparent demand data may rise this week, but inventory changes are more important. The medium - term cost loosening and supply - demand relaxation in the industry remain unchanged. Tariff war easing may boost market sentiment, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, and there is a risk of price decline after the market sentiment fades [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, there is an expectation of "grabbing exports" during the tariff suspension period, causing commodities to strengthen. However, the first round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, coal mines are accumulating inventory, and coking coal prices are falling. Although the futures market rebounded on Wednesday, the spot market is still weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on single - side trading and consider JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [6]. - Regarding ferroalloys, in the silicon - iron market, some manufacturers in Ningxia have stopped production, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation. In the manganese - silicon market, the area of production cuts has expanded, and the cost has a certain loosening expectation. The rebound of silicon - iron may continue strongly, while the rebound of manganese - silicon may slow down in the short term [6]. - For iron ore, the rebound driven by improved macro - sentiment provides a good cost basis. Considering the high comprehensive tariff and the end of the peak season, the market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand peaking and inventory under high hot - metal production. Without considering production restrictions, iron ore will remain in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On May 14, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton with a 48 - yuan increase (1.54% increase), HC2601 at 3283 yuan/ton with a 46 - yuan increase (1.42% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase (1.23% increase), HC2510 at 3267 yuan/ton with a 41 - yuan increase (1.27% increase), etc. [2] - Spreads: The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 5 - yuan decrease. The spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 140 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 4 - yuan increase [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: On May 14, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3270 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase, etc. [2] - Basis: On May 14, the basis of HC (hot - rolled coil) was 73 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase, the basis of RB (rebar) was 143 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]