高盛：全球策略-市场反弹后该如何操作

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral position on equities, indicating a cautious outlook on the market [12]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the current market downturn is likely event-driven rather than structural, with strong fundamentals supporting high equity valuations [5][12]. - Recent tariff announcements and trade deals have improved market sentiment, reducing recession risks and leading to upward revisions in growth forecasts [7][8]. - Despite positive developments, the report warns that risks remain, particularly with high valuations and potential economic slowdowns [12][15]. Summary by Sections Bear Market Analysis - The report categorizes bear markets into structural, cyclical, and event-driven types, with the current situation being assessed as event-driven [1][5]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced declines of just under 20% and 23% respectively, indicating a bear market phase [1]. Economic Forecasts - The US growth forecast for 2025 has been raised by 0.5 percentage points to 1% Q4/Q4, with a reduced probability of recession at 35% [8]. - In China, GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased to 4.6% and 3.8% respectively [8]. Market Performance and Valuations - The report highlights that while US equities have rebounded, European markets have shown stronger performance, with Italy and Germany up over 27% in USD terms [20]. - The S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are revised to $262 and $280, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [8]. Risk Assessment - The report emphasizes that despite recent positive news, the effective tariff rates remain higher than pre-crisis levels, contributing to inflationary pressures [12]. - The report notes that high valuations and market concentration pose ongoing risks, particularly if hard data deteriorates [15][17]. Investment Strategy - The report advocates for diversification across sectors and geographies, suggesting that a broader mix of investments may yield better risk-adjusted returns [20][31]. - It highlights the importance of focusing on alpha rather than beta, recommending quality growth companies and value stocks that can compound returns over time [31].