高盛：中国经济-4 月贷款和信贷数据弱于预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weaker-than-expected performance in loan and credit data for April, suggesting a cautious outlook for investment in the sector Core Insights - Total social financing (TSF) flows and new RMB loans in April were below market expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in corporate loan demand, with bill financing indicating soft demand [1][4] - M2 growth increased significantly in April, influenced by a low base from the previous year, while M1 growth moderated, reflecting substantial funds held in the fiscal account [3][10] Summary by Sections Loan and Credit Data - New RMB loans reported at RMB 280 billion in April, significantly lower than the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 695 billion and GS forecast of RMB 600 billion [2] - Outstanding RMB loan growth was 7.2% year-on-year in April, a decrease from 7.4% in March, with corporate loans showing a notable decline [9] Social Financing - Total TSF flow was RMB 1163 billion in April, below the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 1397 billion and GS forecast of RMB 1350 billion, indicating weaker loan extension [2][4] - TSF stock growth accelerated to 8.7% year-on-year in April, compared to 8.4% in March, with a month-on-month growth of 8.8% [3][8] Monetary Aggregates - M2 growth reached 8.0% year-on-year in April, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of 7.2%, while M1 growth slightly decreased to 1.5% year-on-year [3][10] - Fiscal deposits showed a significant increase, accumulating an RMB 1190 billion surplus year-to-date, compared to an RMB 187 billion deficit last year [10]