贵金属数据日报-20250515

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: After the Sino - US tariff eases, gold still has some adjustment needs in the short term but will be supported by factors like the US April CPI data and potential Fed rate cuts, so it may enter a consolidation phase with decreasing volatility; while silver will be supported by tariff relaxation in the short - term, performing more resiliently than gold, but its long - term upside is limited due to economic risks and weakening physical demand [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Tariff suspension doesn't cancel the trade - war background, the US economy faces "stagflation" risks, the Fed may cut rates in the second half of the year, and with the trend of de - dollarization and central bank gold - buying, gold still has long - term allocation value, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - 15 - point price on May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025: London gold spot decreased by 1.1% to $3227.98 per ounce, London silver spot dropped by 1.2% to $32.74 per ounce, COMEX gold fell by 1.1% to $3231.50 per ounce, COMEX silver declined by 1.3% to $32.89 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2508 decreased by 0.8% to 761.72 yuan per gram, AG2508 decreased by 0.6% to 8195 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.7% to 758.22 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.6% to 8163 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Spread/Ratio Tracking: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.5 yuan per gram on May 14, 2025, with a change of - 8.6% compared to May 13; silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 32 yuan per kilogram, also with a - 8.6% change. Gold's internal - external spread (TD - London) increased by 37.3% to 11.45 yuan per gram, and silver's internal - external spread (TD - London) increased by - 13.9% to - 350 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of May 13, 2025 vs. May 12, 2025: Gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.27% to 936.51 tons, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.21% to 13999.7497 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.22% to 237445 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.74% to 74948 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 0.50% to 162497 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 3.57% to 70335 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.38% to 21083 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 1.38% to 49252 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - As of May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 17238 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.36% to 919463 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.39% to 39270532 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.25% to 503481115 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Related Market Data - As of May 14, 2025 vs. May 13, 2025: The US dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 100.98, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.01% to 4.02%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.90% to 4.49%, NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.72% to 5886.55, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.20, VIX decreased by 0.92% to 18.22, and the S&P 500 increased by 2.70% to 63.63 [4]. 3.5 Market News - The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest since February 2021, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest since the inflation outbreak in spring 2021, and 0.2% month - on - month [4]. - The US House Ways and Means Committee announced the Trump tax reform plan, proposing to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade, cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion, and raise the national debt ceiling by $6 trillion [4]. 3.6 Market Review and Outlook - Market Review: On May 14, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.11% to 761.72 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.16% to 8195 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Outlook: Short - term, gold may enter a consolidation phase, and silver shows more resilience; medium - to - long - term, gold still has allocation value and the strategy is to buy on dips [4].