航运衍生品数据日报-20250515

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the China-US tariff negotiation results were announced. Both sides will retain the right to impose an additional 10% tariff while canceling or suspending other additional tariffs. The US will actually retain a 30% tariff on Chinese goods. This outcome greatly exceeded market expectations, leading to a recovery in market demand expectations for the next three months. On the same day, there were reports of full bookings on US routes, with a 35% increase in bookings and quotes ranging from $1000/FEU to $3000/FEU. The positive demand on US routes mainly affects the supply side of European routes rather than the demand side. Some ships had been scheduled to be transferred from US routes to European routes this month, but it seems there will be no more such transfers. Market expectations suggest that the concentrated bookings on US routes will absorb European route capacity, resulting in stronger performance in the near term. Currently, no ships have been transferred from European to US routes. If US route demand surges and causes port congestion, shipping companies may transfer European route ships to US routes, driving up European route freight rates. [8] - In the short term, it is driven by sentiment. The fundamentals of European routes have not improved significantly. When the market rises rapidly, the positions of long orders and arbitrage strategies (long in peak season contracts and short in relatively off - season contracts) can be reduced. [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Freight Index - Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI): The current value is 1345, the previous value was 1341, with a increase of 0.32% [5]. - China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI): The current value is 1106, the previous value was 1121, with a decrease of 1.31% [5]. - SCFI - US West: The current value is 2347, the previous value was 2272, with an increase of 3.30% [5]. - SCFIS - US West: The current value is 1455, the previous value was 1321, with an increase of 10.19% [5]. - SCFI - US East: The current value is 3335, the previous value was 3283, with an increase of 1.58% [5]. - SCFI - Northwest Europe: The current value is 1161, the previous value was 1200, with a decrease of 3.25% [5]. - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: The current value is 1303, the previous value was 1379, with a decrease of 5.54% [5]. - SCFI - Mediterranean: The current value is 2089, the previous value was 2089, with a change of 0.00% [5]. 2. EC Contracts - Current Values and Changes: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the current values are 1726.0, 2186.1, 1542.0, 1710.0, 1518.3, and 1314.1 respectively, with increases of 17.80%, 15.30%, 9.34%, 6.67%, 7.34%, and 3.54% compared to the previous values [5]. - Position Changes: The current positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 38501, 45783, 23878, 4994, 3323, and 3102 respectively, with increases of 1663, 4882, 4183, 556, 370, and 1006 compared to the previous positions [5]. - Monthly Spread Changes: The current monthly spreads for 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are 644.1, - 168.0, and 395.9 respectively, with increases of 158.4, 24.7, and 62.1 compared to the previous spreads [5]. 3. Tariff - related Information - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [5]. - The US - China trade agreement does not include a "minimum" exemption for e - commerce companies [6]. - The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2. The 24W tariff will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while retaining the right to impose the remaining 10% tariff. The additional tariffs imposed on these goods according to Executive Orders No. 14259 on April 8 and No. 14266 on April 9 will be cancelled [6]. - The US will reduce the tariff on small parcels from 120% to 54%. The ad - valorem tariff rate for small parcels worth less than $800 will be reduced from 120% to 54%, while maintaining a specific tariff of $100 per small postal item and revoking the original plan to increase the specific tariff from $100 to $200 on June 1 [6].