Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-15 15:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][20]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 19.051 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.810 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease in revenue of 10.67% but an increase in net profit of 20.51% [1]. - The industry is experiencing marginal improvements in supply and demand, with a national cement production decrease of 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, while the company's main region, East China, saw a decline of 2.9% [2]. - The company plans to achieve a total cement and clinker sales volume of 268 million tons for the year, with capital expenditures of 11.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 23% from the previous year [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the overall gross margin was 22.88%, an increase of 5.13 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9.32%, up 2.34 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company's operating cash flow net amount reached 503 million yuan, an increase of 343 million yuan year-on-year, indicating improved cash flow [2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is set at 10.1 billion, 11.6 billion, and 12.5 billion yuan respectively [3]. Production Capacity and Market Position - As of the end of 2024, the company has a clinker production capacity of 27.4 million tons and a cement production capacity of 40.3 million tons, showcasing significant scale advantages [3]. - The average cement price in East China for Q1 was 393 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 8% year-on-year, with expectations for continued price increases in Q2 [2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2025 is 100.62 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 10.54% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.91 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.48 [4].