摩根士丹利：苹果-关于服务业务的多空辩论

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Apple, Inc. with a price target of $235.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price of$ 198.53 [5]. Core Insights - The report discusses the dual nature of concerns regarding Apple's Services business, highlighting both vulnerabilities and potential overreactions from the market. Legal challenges and changing search habits pose risks to Apple's digital advertising revenue, which exceeds $20 billion, putting over 50% of its highest-margin Services at risk. However, investor sentiment has turned negative despite historical outperformance during this period [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming catalysts, including potential improvements in US/China trade relations and the upcoming WWDC event, which could influence investor sentiment and performance [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Metrics - Apple's current market capitalization is approximately$ 2,978 billion, with a 52-week price range of $260.10 to$ 169.21. The projected EPS for FY26 is $7.69, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 34.5 in FY24 to 23.0 in FY27 [5][36]. Services Business Analysis - The Services segment has historically compounded at a 16% annual growth rate over the past five years, with gross margins expanding from 60.8% in FY18 to 75.4% in the first half of FY25. However, recent legal developments and regulatory pressures could jeopardize this growth, particularly concerning the App Store and Google TAC, which together account for a significant portion of Services revenue [20][22]. - The report outlines a "Bull Case" where Apple maintains its role as a key search gatekeeper, leveraging its large user base for monetization, while the "Bear Case" suggests that disruptions in traditional search could lead to significant revenue losses [8][12][16]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Apple's stock may remain range-bound in the short term due to various market forces, including geopolitical tensions and Services risks. The tactical floor for the stock is estimated at$ 170, with a ceiling around $230 [23]. - Long-term growth opportunities in AI, AR/VR, and other emerging markets are highlighted as potential drivers of future revenue, which the market may currently be undervaluing [12][20].