BABA(HK:09988) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-15 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The recent financial report highlights several operational strengths, including robust growth in both revenue and profitability from the e-commerce segment, with the Taobao and Tmall Group showing signs of stabilization and improvement. Additionally, the cloud business is accelerating its growth. From a medium to long-term perspective, the company's cash cow e-commerce business has stabilized, and investments in instant retail are expected to drive high-frequency consumer spending. The cloud business is opening a second growth curve, leading to a positive outlook on investment opportunities [2][4][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 6% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit remained flat. In Q4 FY2025, revenue grew by 7% year-on-year, and Non-GAAP net profit increased by 22% [4][8]. E-commerce Segment - The Taobao and Tmall Group's market share remains solid, with customer management revenue and profitability growth exceeding expectations. In Q4 FY2025, customer management revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, and EBITA increased by 8% year-on-year. The introduction of instant retail is expected to significantly boost traffic and user engagement [8]. International Digital Commerce - The International Digital Commerce Group saw a revenue increase of 22% year-on-year in Q4 FY2025, with a narrowing EBITA loss of 13% year-on-year. The company is expected to maintain a cautious expansion strategy while balancing growth and profitability [8]. Cloud Computing - In Q4 FY2025, the cloud computing segment achieved revenue of 30.127 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The management noted that AI-related revenues have been growing at triple-digit rates for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong downstream demand [8]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for Q4 FY2025 was 24.612 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 120.68%. The company has committed to significant capital expenditures, with amounts of 18.372 billion yuan and 45.321 billion yuan signed but not yet recognized as of March 31, 2024, and March 31, 2025, respectively [8]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026-2028 is projected to be 180 billion yuan, 216.6 billion yuan, and 247.6 billion yuan, respectively [8].