金信期货日刊-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, the alumina futures market showed strong performance, with significant gains in the main contract. The short - term futures price may remain strong, expected to continue box - type fluctuations. A - shares fell across the board after continuous upward oscillations. Gold continued to weaken but the long - term trend is still bullish. Iron ore has high - valuation risks but short - term is in a bullish oscillation. The glass market continues to oscillate. PTA shows signs of peaking in the short - term [3][4][6][11][14][17][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - On May 15, the alumina futures main contract had significant gains. The rise was driven by supply tightening (more maintenance and production cuts in alumina enterprises, declining operating capacity, low production, and no new capacity in the short - term) and increased demand (more inquiries in the spot market, rising procurement willingness of aluminum plants). Although the current supply surplus is hard to disprove, short - term supply tightening and stable demand support the price. However, the restored profit may ease the supply - side production - cut sentiment, and cost reduction has potential negative impacts on prices. It is recommended for investors to operate in the short - term and be cautious when chasing high prices [3][4] A - shares - After continuous upward oscillations, A - shares fell across the board on this day, and technically, there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase [6] Gold - Gold further weakened and hit a new low during the session, weaker than expected. But this is still part of the adjustment, and the long - term trend remains bullish. The most important support is the low point after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and short - term repair requires time [11][10] Iron Ore - In May, downstream export reduction and increased shipments lead to large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, increasing the high - valuation risk of iron ore. Affected by the positive news of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market sentiment has improved. Technically, it was in high - level consolidation today, and a short - term bullish oscillation mindset is maintained [14] Glass - The continuous increase in demand depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Affected by the positive news of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, risk appetite has increased. Technically, it had a narrow - range operation today, and the oscillation mindset is maintained. Currently, the daily melting volume is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak [17][18] PTA - Fundamentally, the operating rate of PX plants remains low, and major factories like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong plan to conduct maintenance in May, resulting in tight spot circulation. Meanwhile, the poor demand in the downstream polyester industry suppresses the PTA futures price, creating fundamental pressure for it to break through the resistance level. Technically, it shows signs of peaking in the short - term [21]