宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is expected to cool down after the previous macro - positive factors are digested. The price of PX has adjusted due to the decline in raw material prices. Although the supply of Asian PX is tightening, the demand is also higher than expected, and it will still be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. PTA prices are expected to be mainly driven by costs, with short - term prices running strongly. The polyester bottle - chip market is currently in a state of relatively high supply, and downstream demand is mainly focused on consuming previous inventories. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On May 15, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, and xylene all decreased. The settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.62/barrel, down 2.42%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.53/barrel, down 2.36%; the spot price of naphtha was $572/ton, down 3.05%; and the spot price of xylene was $709/ton, down 3.08% [1] - PTA Futures and Spot: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.56%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,103 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [1] - PX Futures and Spot: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.72%; the settlement price was 6,806 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,817 yuan/ton [1] - PR Futures and Spot: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,116 yuan/ton, down 1.35%; the settlement price was 6,154 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [1] - Downstream: On May 15, 2025, the prices of most downstream products increased slightly. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [2] Operating Conditions - On May 15, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged. The operating rate of PX was 73.32%, the PTA factory load rate was 74.41%, the polyester factory load rate was 91.34%, and the bottle - chip factory load rate was 85.13%. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 3.83 percentage points to 68.10% [1] Production and Sales Rates - On May 15, 2025, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased. The production and sales rate of polyester filament was 36%, down 16 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 44%, down 17 percentage points; and the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 41%, down 52 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.11%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.35 million lots; the 2509 contract closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.46%, with an intraday trading volume of 30,500 lots; the PR 2507 contract closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with an intraday trading volume of 50,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]