Dongxing Securities·2025-05-16 00:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry for 2025 [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has experienced a qualitative change in profit quality, with significant growth in revenue and net profit over the past decade [4][19] - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from a tightening supply-demand structure, interest rate cuts, and favorable policy cycles [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Profit Growth - From 2015 to 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved total revenue of 3,407.5 billion yuan, a 205% increase over ten years, and a net profit of 138.4 billion yuan, a staggering 4,691% increase [4][19] - The net profit surged from 15.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 181.8 billion yuan in 2022, marking a 1,062% increase during the global quantitative easing period [4][19] - In 2024, revenue growth accelerated to 5.86%, and net profit growth improved to 1.77%, compared to 2023's revenue growth of 1.5% and a net profit decline of 25.21% [4][19] 2. Price Trends in 2024 - Industrial metal prices generally increased due to a tight supply-demand structure, with zinc leading the rise at 20.1%, while nickel prices fell by 2.5% due to oversupply [5][31] - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold prices rising by 27.8% and silver by 24.8% [5][33] - Small metals exhibited mixed price movements, with cobalt prices dropping by 23.6% and antimony prices increasing by 72.6% [5][34] 3. Profitability and Industry Concentration - The profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry improved, with gross margins for industrial and precious metals rising to 10.03% and 12.95%, respectively [6][50] - The concentration of profits has increased, with the top ten companies accounting for 64% of net profits, up from 45% [6][60] - The top ten companies' net profits grew by 39%, significantly outpacing the overall industry net profit decline of 1% [6][60] 4. Fund Allocation Trends - The fund allocation in the non-ferrous metals sector reached a historical high of 5.43% in Q1 2024, before dropping to 2.85% by Q4 due to economic weakness and declining demand [7][9] - In Q1 2025, the allocation increased again to 4.34%, driven primarily by industrial and precious metals [9][10] 5. Outlook for 2025 - The copper sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with a significant reduction in long-term contract prices [10] - Gold is anticipated to benefit from heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank purchases, leading to a sustained high demand [10] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to supply-side reforms and increased demand from new energy and military sectors [10][35]