Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decline in thermal coal prices, with significant increases in coal inventory at three major ports [5][30] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth is observed [39] - Domestic shipping costs have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping costs show mixed trends [49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Prices - As of May 9, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 635 CNY/ton, down 4.80% from the previous month [3][14] - International thermal coal prices have also decreased, with Newcastle coal at 94 USD/ton, down 3.09% month-on-month [17] 2. Production - In March, the monthly coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased month-on-month [23] - The total coal production in March was 44,058.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [20] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in April was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% month-on-month [26] - The monthly import of thermal coal in March was 9.18 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month but a decrease of 30.58% year-on-year [26] 4. Inventory - As of May 9, the total coal inventory at the three major ports reached 15.76 million tons, an increase of 12.73% month-on-month [30] - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups increased by 5.11% month-on-month [38] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month [39] - National electricity generation in March increased by 4.06% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 1.96% [41][48] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic shipping costs from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai decreased by 13.92% month-on-month [49] - International shipping costs from Newcastle to China decreased by 3.79% month-on-month [49]
煤炭行业:动力煤价下跌,三大港口库存增幅明显
Dongxing Securities·2025-05-16 00:50