Xinda Securities·2025-05-16 01:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the packaging sector, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The plastic packaging segment shows steady revenue growth and an upward shift in profit margins, with Yongxin Co. reporting a revenue increase of 9.6% in Q4 2024 and 1.6% in Q1 2025, alongside a net profit growth of 41.7% and 2.9% respectively [2][6] - The paper packaging sector continues to grow steadily, with Yutong Technology experiencing a revenue increase of 11% in Q4 2024 and 6% in Q1 2025, despite a net profit decline in Q4 2024 due to various one-off impacts [3][7] - The metal packaging segment is facing challenges, particularly in the two-piece can sector, but there are signs of potential recovery as industry consolidation progresses and demand stabilizes [4][8] Summary by Segment Plastic Packaging - Yongxin Co. reported a revenue increase of 9.6% in Q4 2024 and 1.6% in Q1 2025, with a net profit growth of 41.7% and 2.9% respectively [2][6] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 25.9%, and for Q1 2025, it was 21.3%, indicating a slight increase in profitability despite a decrease in product prices due to falling oil prices [6] - Functional films are expected to grow over 20% in Q1 2025, with overseas business projected to grow by 30% [2][6] Paper Packaging - Yutong Technology's revenue grew by 11% in Q4 2024 and 6% in Q1 2025, with a net profit decline of 35% in Q4 2024 but a recovery of 10% in Q1 2025 [3][7] - The company is expected to maintain stable customer orders and improve market share due to its global layout and strong client relationships [3][7] Metal Packaging - The two-piece can sector is under pressure, with expected losses in Q1 2025, but there are signs of recovery as demand from the beer sector stabilizes [4][8] - Baosteel Packaging reported a revenue increase of 11% in Q4 2024 but only 1% in Q1 2025, with a net profit growth of 138% in Q1 2025 [4][8] - The report suggests that the consolidation in the industry and improved pricing power for leading companies may lead to a recovery in profitability [4][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable growth and high dividends, such as Yongxin Co. and Yutong Technology, as well as Baosteel Packaging and others in the two-piece can sector that may see a rebound [11]