阿里巴巴-W：阿里巴巴 FY2025 全年&Q4 点评：淘天表现亮眼，云计算持续提速-20250516

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba (9988.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The recent financial report highlights several operational strengths, including robust growth in both revenue and profitability from the e-commerce segment, with the Taobao and Tmall Group showing signs of stabilization and improvement. Additionally, the cloud computing business is accelerating its growth. Overall, the company is expected to benefit from its cash cow e-commerce business stabilizing, increased user frequency from investments in instant retail, and the cloud business opening a second growth curve, leading to a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2][5][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company reported a revenue growth of 6% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit remained flat. In FY2025 Q4, revenue grew by 7% year-on-year, and Non-GAAP net profit increased by 22% [5][9]. E-commerce Segment - The Taobao Group's market share remains solid, with customer management revenue and profitability growth exceeding expectations. In FY2025 Q4, customer management revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, driven by improved monetization rates and increased merchant penetration. The EBITA for the quarter increased by 8% year-on-year, indicating a gradual convergence of profit growth with revenue growth [9]. International Digital Commerce - The International Digital Commerce Group saw a revenue increase of 22% year-on-year in FY2025 Q4, with a cautious expansion strategy and a 13% year-on-year reduction in EBITA losses. The company aims to balance expansion and profitability while targeting quarterly profitability in FY2026 [9]. Cloud Computing - Alibaba Cloud achieved a revenue of 30.127 billion yuan in FY2025 Q4, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth. The management noted that AI-related revenues have been growing at triple-digit rates for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong downstream demand [9]. Capital Expenditure - In FY2025 Q4, Alibaba's capital expenditure reached 24.612 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 120.68%. The company has committed to significant capital expenditures, with amounts of 18.372 billion yuan and 45.321 billion yuan signed but not yet recognized as of March 31, 2024, and March 31, 2025, respectively [9]. Future Profitability Projections - The company projects Non-GAAP net profits of 180 billion yuan, 216.6 billion yuan, and 247.6 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [9].