申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250516

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of palm oil in China is expected to improve, and the inventory may increase, leading to a gradual decline in prices [2] - The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, but the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in the second quarter, which will continue to put pressure on prices [2] - The overall price of edible oils has declined due to factors such as the weakening of the hype sentiment of US biodiesel and the increase in palm oil production and inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Information - Brazil's Mato Grosso state achieved a record - high soybean yield in the 2024/2025 season, with an average yield of 66.3 bags per hectare, 14 bags higher than the recent average [2] - As the international palm oil price drops significantly, China's palm oil purchases have increased. It is expected that China will import 250,000 tons and 280,000 tons of palm oil in May and June respectively. Considering the compressed domestic consumption, the supply is expected to improve, inventory may rise, and prices will gradually weaken [2] - The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA's supply - demand report is bullish, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. Domestically, the import of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase rapidly [2] Comment and Strategy - Edible oils showed a weak trend at night. The US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has been extended, but the hype sentiment of US biodiesel has weakened, and the price of US soybean oil has declined. The MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have exceeded expectations, and the overall price of edible oils has declined due to the drop in crude oil prices [2] - Protein meals fluctuated weakly at night. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to sowing. The USDA report is bullish, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase rapidly, and the sufficient supply in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2] Market Data - Domestic Futures Market: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased, with declines of - 1.49%, - 1.66%, and - 3.15% respectively; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased, with increases of 0.31% and 0.62% respectively; the price of peanut futures increased by 0.29% [1] - International Futures Market: The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil futures increased by 2.82%, while the prices of CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal futures decreased by - 2.11%, - 5.52%, and - 1.47% respectively [1] - Domestic Spot Market: The spot prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.33% to - 2.29%; the spot prices of soybean meal in Nantong and Dongguan decreased, while the spot prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and Dongguan increased; the spot prices of peanuts remained unchanged [1] - Import and Profit: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans decreased, while the import profit of Canadian crude rapeseed oil increased [1] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for peanuts decreased, while the number of warehouse receipts for other varieties remained unchanged [1]