中美经贸磋商提速，全球贸易政策博弈持续

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core View - The report focuses on multiple aspects including Sino-US economic and trade consultations, global trade policy games, US monetary policy, and commodity market trends. It emphasizes short - term attention on economic fact verification and long - term consideration of stagflation allocation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory authority will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC aims to "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 14, 2025, 12:01, the tariff rate on imported US goods was reduced from 34% to 10%, and an additional 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days [2] - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + volume" restriction approach. The US warned that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea would take time, and India countered US tariff policies [3] - The US May FOMC meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged. The April CPI data was lower than expected, but the impact of tariffs on the consumer side was not fully transmitted [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff hikes on commodities first affects demand and then inflation. Agricultural products are more likely to have price increases due to tariffs, while energy products face a supply - loose situation in the medium - term [5] - China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased imports from Brazil. The IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC + will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June [5] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] To - do News - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce adjusted counter - tariff measures against the US in response to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China. China is open to the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [8] - Trump mentioned progress in negotiations with Iran and an "almost zero - tariff" agreement intention with India. The APEC estimated that the GDP growth rate of the Asia - Pacific region in 2025 is 2.6%, lower than the previous 3.3% [8]