申银万国期货早间策略-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bullish outlook for stock index futures and recommends using a long - straddle buying strategy for stock index options to capture the trend after direction selection. The short - term positive news such as the favorable policies on May 7 and the stage results of China - US tariff negotiations on May 12 are beneficial to the stock market. Currently, the valuation levels of major Chinese indices are still low, and it is cost - effective for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts in different periods decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with declines ranging from - 0.67% to - 0.74%. The trading volume was between 3,433 and 59,965, and the open interest decreased from - 244 to - 11,402 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts in different periods increased, with increases ranging from 1.75% to 2.01%. The trading volume was between 2,516 and 48,329, and the open interest increased from 1,153 to 13,041 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.10% to - 1.17%. The trading volume was between 5,256 and 58,925, and the open interest decreased from - 9 to - 12,886 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.28% to - 1.40%. The trading volume was between 10,403 and 155,023, and the open interest changes ranged from - 15,638 to 722 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed certain changes, with current values of - 35.40, - 18.40, - 97.80, and - 109.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 35.60, - 20.40, - 102.20, and - 113.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Indices: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased, with declines of - 0.91%, - 0.49%, - 1.45%, and - 1.68% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed to varying degrees [1] - Industry Indices: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries all showed different degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 0.37% to 2.21% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indices showed certain changes. For example, the basis of IF contracts relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 4.26 to - 0.21 for the current - month contract, and the basis of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.22 to 0.50 for the current - month contract [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - Domestic Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.68% to - 1.91% [1] - Overseas Indices: The Hang Seng Index decreased by - 0.79%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by - 0.98%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.41%, and the DAX Index increased by 0.72% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic large - scale cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic economic stability. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a guiding opinion to safeguard the high - quality development of the capital market. The top - level design for urban renewal in China was introduced. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips, and the Fed Chairman Powell considered adjusting the core content of the monetary policy framework [2] 6. Industry Information - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut on May 7, over a hundred bank wealth management products had their performance comparison benchmarks lowered, and the industry may face an "asset shortage." 19 FOF products issued liquidation warning announcements this year, with many experiencing significant scale shrinkage. The real estate industry in 2024 was still in an adjustment period, with only 11 out of the top 30 real estate enterprises achieving revenue growth. The domestic HarmonyOS ecosystem has a million - level talent gap, which is expected to widen in the next three years [2]