市场聚焦美伊核谈判

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends short - term trading based on events (such as the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks) with an overall volatile trend for oil prices, and a medium - term short position for oil [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices dropped significantly yesterday, with WTI and Brent falling over 2%, and SC nearly 5%. This was mainly due to Trump's remarks about the approaching Iran nuclear deal. The market fears that if U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted, it could lead to an increase in Iranian oil supply and exacerbate the oil market surplus. However, whether the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks will succeed remains uncertain, and the outcome of this event will have opposite impacts on oil prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.53 to $61.62 per barrel, a decrease of 2.42%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell $1.56 to $64.53 per barrel, a decrease of 2.36%. The SC crude oil main contract dropped 3.53% to 462 yuan per barrel [1] - Powell will re - evaluate the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, including the handling of inflation targets and employment "gaps". Higher real interest rates may reflect more volatile future inflation, and "supply shocks" may become the new normal [1] - The U.S. April PPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and decreased 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years, mainly due to the decline in corporate profit margins. U.S. April retail sales increased 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations, but sales of 7 out of 13 commodity categories decreased [1] - The IEA raised its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day, and the global supply growth forecast to 1.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 380,000 barrels per day compared to last month's report. In 2025, global supply is expected to far exceed demand growth, and inventories will increase by about 720,000 barrels per day [1] - Hamas is in direct talks with the U.S. to reach an agreement to end the Gaza conflict. Hamas called for the exchange of detainees, Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, allowing aid supplies to enter Gaza, and rebuilding Gaza without forced migration. If a permanent cease - fire is achieved, Hamas can hand over control of the Gaza Strip [1] - Indonesia's recent increase in the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy. If oil prices remain above $49 per barrel, it may improve the financial stability of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel program and may lead to the introduction of a B50 biodiesel policy [1] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the U.S. has put forward many contradictory positions in the Iran nuclear talks, which may be due to the lack of centralization in the U.S. decision - making structure or its negotiation style. Iran's negotiation style is based on adhering to basic principles, and Iran's uranium enrichment facilities will continue to exist [1] Investment Logic - The current Iranian crude oil production is around 3.2 million barrels per day, with exports of 1.5 - 2 million barrels per day. If sanctions are lifted, Iranian oil will re - enter the global market, and its 30 million barrels of floating storage will flow into the market in the short term. Iran can increase exports by about 500,000 barrels per day within 3 months, which will exacerbate the oil market surplus in the second half of the year [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term due to events and suitable for short - position allocation in the medium term [3] Risk - Downside risks include significant production increases by OPEC and macro black - swan events; upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]