现货价格小幅下调，豆粕维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is "cautiously bearish" [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal, the supply of Brazilian new - season soybeans is increasing, and the domestic soybean supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. With the recovery of oil mill operations, the soybean meal inventory will gradually rise. The supply pressure is emerging, and the support from import costs will weaken, so the soybean meal price will face significant pressure. Also, the positive outcome of the China - US talks may reduce the impact of the trade war on US soybeans and domestic soybean meal [2] - For corn, the supply of domestic corn is abundant as the remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, but the port inventory is still high. The demand side is weak as deep - processing enterprises are facing losses, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2923 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2537 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+1.12%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2960 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2500 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian soybean exports: In May 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 14.268 million tons, 13% higher than last week's forecast. From January to April, Brazil exported 40.42 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 41.5% of last year's total exports [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Brazilian new - season soybeans are arriving at Chinese ports, and the arrival volume will exceed 10 million tons from April to July. The supply pressure is emerging, and the import cost support will weaken [2] - Demand: Not specifically mentioned, but the overall supply - side situation indicates potential downward pressure on prices [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2342 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.59%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2689 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.48%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - French corn: In the 2024/25 season, France's corn production is expected to be 13.973 million tons, 15.9% higher than the previous season. Exports are expected to be 4.702 million tons, up 11.5%, and the ending inventory is estimated to be 3.472 million tons, 2.5% higher than last month's forecast [3] Market Analysis - Supply: The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, but the port inventory is still high [4] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises are facing losses, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution. The downstream提货 speed is slow [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]