港口基差回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port basis of styrene has peaked and declined, reflecting that traders are realizing trading profits, and the downstream is in a loss state with low PS and ABS operating rates and continuous inventory pressure on finished products of the three major hard plastics. However, attention should be paid to the short - covering rhythm of previously over - sold traders. Against the background of the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the demand for pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded. The low operating rates of caprolactam and aniline in the downstream of pure benzene may improve due to the tariff reduction, but the subsequent arrival pressure of pure benzene still exists. The report suggests a cautious long - hedging strategy [2][3] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 12.30 million tons (+0.30 million tons), the CFR China processing fee is $186/ton (+$12/ton), the FOB Korea processing fee is $174/ton (+$17/ton), the US - Korea price difference is $31.7/ton (-$22.0/ton) and remains closed, and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 15 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene: The main contract basis is 251 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton), the non - integrated production profit is 331 yuan/ton (-27 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] EB& Pure Benzene Operating Rates and Inventories - Pure benzene: The East China port inventory is related to the data of 12.30 million tons (+0.30 million tons), and the operating rate is not specifically mentioned in the summarized key data [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 56,700 tons (-11,800 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 44,900 tons (-8,600 tons), and it is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate is 71.3% (-0.9%) [1] Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 240 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 62.34% (+14.96%) [1] - PS: The production profit is - 210 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 57.10% (+0.80%) [1] - ABS: The production profit is 363 yuan/ton (+747 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 67.39% (-1.61%) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profits - Not specifically summarized in the key data, but it mentions that the low operating rates of caprolactam and aniline are affected by factors such as the decline in exports of related products, and the impact of tariff reduction on their demand needs attention [2]