多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，关注仓单数量增加持续性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have stabilized, and the futures market has rebounded this week. The supply side is under pressure, and cost support has weakened recently. With the approaching of the wet season in the southwest, there is a possibility of production resumption. The demand side is mainly based on rigid procurement, and consumption remains relatively weak. Polysilicon may further reduce production, and organic silicon enterprises face high cost pressure. The overall industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are still relatively high, and attention should be paid to the production resumption in the southwest wet season and the impact of macro - sentiment [2] - The recent polysilicon futures market is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and warehouse receipt delivery, resulting in intensified market fluctuations. The increase in warehouse receipts yesterday was significant, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of this increase [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 opened at 8450 yuan/ton and closed at 8410 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 124014 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 15, 2025, was 66433 lots, a change of - 98 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream silicon in many other regions also remained stable, while the price of 97 silicon decreased in some cases [1] - The consumption side showed signs of improvement. The domestic high - temperature rubber downstream and terminal enterprises started to purchase. The main reason was that the volume of foreign trade orders increased due to the reduction of trade war tariffs, the domestic downstream production started to increase, the willingness to purchase raw materials strengthened, and the trading volume recovered [1] Strategy - Not provided in the content Risk - Not provided in the content Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures maintained a wide - range fluctuation, opening at 38100 yuan/ton and closing at 37920 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.68% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 37985 lots (44692 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 136753 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 37.00 - 40.50 yuan/kg (- 0.75 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also significantly decreased. The newly - counted polysilicon inventory was 25.00 (a month - on - month change of - 2.27%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW (a month - on - month change of 7.22%), the weekly polysilicon output was 21400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW (a month - on - month change of 0.50%) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided. For example, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.95 yuan/piece (- 0.03 yuan/piece), and the price of efficient PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell for hedging at high prices [4] - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None Risk - Production resumption in the southwest and production suspension in the northwest [4] - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Industry self - discipline's impact on upstream and downstream operations [7] - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [7] - The impact of capital sentiment [7] - Policy disturbances [7] - Macro and capital sentiment [3] - The operation situation of organic silicon enterprises [3]