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金价有所回升,但整体仍维持震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-16 01:29

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell said the Fed is adjusting its policy - making framework, zero - interest rate is no longer a base case, and 4 - month PCE is expected to drop to 2.2%. Japan seeks a third round of US - Japan trade talks next week, the US considers modifying the US - Japan trade agreement, and the EU and the US will accelerate trade negotiations with the EU hoping for a larger tariff cut than the UK. Russia - Ukraine talks are postponed to the 16th [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 750.00 yuan/gram, closed at 739.82 yuan/gram, down 2.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 744,074 lots, and the open interest was 211,188 lots. The night - session closed at 754.32 yuan/gram, up 1.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,090 yuan/kg, closed at 8,008 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 936,043 lots, and the open interest was 342,882 lots. The night - session closed at 8,134 yuan/kg, up 1.02% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 15, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.53%, with a 0.04% change from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.49%, up 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On May 15, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, long positions changed by 355 lots and short positions by 203 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 997,266 lots, up 59.43% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 2,151 lots and short positions increased by 2,830 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,477,415 lots, down 43.78% from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 927.62 tons, down 4.30 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,971.47 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On May 15, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 23.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 260.54 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 92.39, down 0.61% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 98.20, with a - 0.16% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 79,414 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 974,352 kg, up 144.37% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,224 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 49,560 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Neutral. The US is reaching trade agreements with multiple countries or regions, and Trump's previous tariff policy has changed, leading to a rise in risk - on sentiment and a decline in gold prices. Gold may seek support at the monthly - line level (around 710 yuan/gram). It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. Silver: Although silver has also declined, it may be slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to correct. It is also recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [8][9]