国泰君安期货所长早读：鲍威尔表示美联储正调整货币政策框架-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Fed Chair Powell is re - evaluating the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise [7][18][24]. - The rebound in the crude oil market may not be over, but the expected US - Iran peace talks have weakened the upside space. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads lightly [8]. - Soda ash is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term but still face pressure in the medium term [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - Core View: Gold has broken below the support level, and silver is oscillating downward [13][19]. - Fundamentals: Gold and silver prices showed different trends in the day and night sessions, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is - 1 [18][22]. - News: The Fed's adjustment of the monetary policy framework, US economic data such as PPI and retail sales, and international political and economic events [18][23]. 3.2 Copper - Core View: Copper lacks a clear driver and its price is oscillating [13][24]. - Fundamentals: Copper prices had fluctuations in the day and night sessions, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - News: The Fed's policy adjustment, US economic data, and news about copper imports and mining projects [24][26]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - Core View: Aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, and alumina continues to rebound [13][27]. - Fundamentals: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of aluminum and alumina. The trend strength of both is 0 [27][29]. - News: Spot alumina transactions in Henan [27]. 3.4 Zinc - Core View: Zinc prices are adjusting downward [13][30]. - Fundamentals: Zinc prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [30][31]. - News: US economic data [31]. 3.5 Lead - Core View: Lead is in a range - bound adjustment [13][33]. - Fundamentals: Lead prices had slight changes, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [33][34]. - News: US economic data [34]. 3.6 Tin - Core View: Tin is oscillating in a narrow range [13][36]. - Fundamentals: Tin prices had minor fluctuations, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [37][41]. - News: The Fed's policy adjustment, US economic data, and international political and economic events [38]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Core View: News has affected market sentiment for nickel, but the fundamentals have changed little. For stainless steel, inventory has slightly decreased at a high level, and the short - term recovery may not be significant [13][42]. - Fundamentals: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of nickel and stainless steel. The trend strength of both is 0 [42][46]. - News: Indonesia's adjustment of nickel product resource tax rates, Canada's potential nickel export policy change, and the progress of nickel - related projects [42][45]. 3.8 Lithium Carbonate - Core View: The pattern of inventory accumulation in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to reverse, and the weak trend may continue [13][47]. - Fundamentals: Lithium carbonate futures prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [47][49]. - News: The price increase of battery - grade lithium carbonate and the growth of the global electric vehicle market [48][49]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Core View: Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental situation and the disk has a downward drive. Polysilicon's downstream prices continue to fall, and the disk is weak [13][50]. - Fundamentals: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon. The trend strength of both is - 1 [50][52]. - News: Lian Sheng Technology's major asset restructuring [51]. 3.10 Iron Ore - Core View: Short - term positive factors for iron ore have been realized, and the upward drive has slowed down [13][53]. - Fundamentals: Iron ore prices declined slightly, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [54]. - News: China's M2 data [54]. 3.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Core View: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [13][56]. - Fundamentals: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices had minor fluctuations, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is 0 [56][58]. - News: Steel production data from the China Iron and Steel Association, steel production, inventory, and demand data from Shanghai Steel Union, and China's loan and money supply data [56][58]. 3.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Core View: Ferrosilicon has concentrated production cuts in major producing areas and is in wide - range oscillations. Silicomanganese's raw material prices continue to rise, and it is also in wide - range oscillations [13][60][61]. - Fundamentals: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The trend strength of both is 0 [60][63]. - News: Price changes and production cuts in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets [60]. 3.13 Coke and Coking Coal - Core View: Both coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations due to the decline in hot metal production [13][64][65]. - Fundamentals: Coke and coking coal prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is 0 [65][68]. - News: Price and inventory data of coke and coking coal [65]. 3.14 Steam Coal - Core View: Steam coal inventories in mines are increasing, and the price is oscillating weakly [13][69]. - Fundamentals: Steam coal had no trading on the previous day, with price and inventory information. The trend strength is 0 [69][71]. - News: Steam coal prices in domestic and foreign ports [70]. 3.15 Logs - Core View: Logs are oscillating repeatedly [13][72].