生猪：博弈持续

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are issues such as inverted price differences between fat pigs in the north and south, reduced piglet sales by groups, and increased pen pressure in May, price increases have led to continued inventory accumulation. The near - term contradictions are not at the release stage. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - monthly spread valuation deviating from the norm. In the medium - to - long - term, continue to layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 14,450 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and in Guangdong is 15,190 yuan/ton [3]. - Futures Prices: The price of the live hog 2507 contract is 13,495 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), the 2509 contract is 13,780 yuan/ton (down 240 yuan/ton), and the 2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton) [3]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the live hog 2507 contract is 9,989 lots (an increase of 2,918 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 27,584 lots (a decrease of 706 lots); the 2509 contract has a trading volume of 40,357 lots (an increase of 12,323 lots), with an open interest of 77,561 lots (an increase of 5,221 lots); the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 6,572 lots (an increase of 3,358 lots), with an open interest of 30,277 lots (an increase of 837 lots) [3]. - Price Spreads: The basis of the live hog 2507 contract is 1,505 yuan/ton (an increase of 150 yuan/ton), the 2509 contract is 1,220 yuan/ton (an increase of 240 yuan/ton), and the 2511 contract is 1,450 yuan/ton (an increase of 105 yuan/ton). The 7 - 9 spread is - 285 yuan/ton (an increase of 90 yuan/ton), and the 9 - 11 spread is 230 yuan/ton (a decrease of 135 yuan/ton) [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. It represents a neutral state [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Focus on the far - month inter - monthly spread valuation deviating from the norm for arbitrage strategies. In the medium - to - long - term, continue to layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].