Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Zinc ingot spot premium has significantly declined, and the low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall. The consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after May [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$22.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 205 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On May 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 152,385 lots, down 66,723 lots, and the position was 99,050 lots, down 5,891 lots. The highest price was 22,915 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,545 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of May 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 86,300 tons, up 3,000 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 165,175 tons, down 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Supply: Due to a large number of imported zinc ingots arriving, downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined, and the spot premium has further dropped. Zijin's Russian mine plans to shut down in June, and overseas production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the oversupply of zinc ingots is still expected. Although the TC increase is limited, smelting is still profitable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and short - term TC does not have the conditions to be lowered [4] - Demand: The consumption in May may face challenges. As the window for rushed exports is approaching the end and there has been over - consumption, there may be a month - on - month decline in consumption after May [4] - Price outlook: The low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]
锌锭现货升水大幅度走低
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-16 01:45