港口基差快速下挫

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expected methanol inventory accumulation cycle did not continue, and the port inventory declined again this week. However, there were ship cargo diversions to Taicang in the MTO area, causing the previously high methanol port basis to drop rapidly. There are concerns about a rapid increase in Taicang port inventory next week, and an inflection point in inventory is anticipated. The overseas operating rate has slightly declined from its high level, and Iranian plants have reduced their loads due to inventory pressure, but there is still pressure for an increase in Chinese imports. In the inland region, the coal-based methanol operating rate has returned to a high level, and the inland is gradually entering an inventory accumulation cycle. Among traditional downstream industries, MTBE has reduced its load due to losses, while acetic acid production still shows some resilience [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - Figures 1 - 8 show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, with units in yuan/ton - Figures 9 - 11 show the price spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), with units in yuan/ton [6] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figure 12 shows the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, with units in yuan/ton - Figure 13 shows the MTO profit (PP&EG type) in East China, with units in yuan/ton - Figure 14 shows the import price difference (excluding additional points) between Taicang methanol and CFR China, with units in yuan/ton - Figures 15 - 17 show the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, with units in US dollars/ton [6] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figure 18 shows the total methanol port inventory, with units in tons - Figure 19 shows the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), with units in % - Figure 20 shows the sample inventory of inland factories, with units in tons - Figure 21 shows the Chinese methanol operating rate (including integrated operations), with units in % [6] IV. Regional Price Spreads - Figures 22 - 27 show the price spreads between different regions (Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200), with units in yuan/ton [6] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures 28 - 31 show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6]