市场出货意向增加，现货基差下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the single - side strategy, positive spread for the inter - period strategy, and no suggestion for the inter - variety strategy [3] Core View - The market's intention to ship has increased, and the spot basis has declined. The price of ethylene glycol has adjusted and the basis has weakened. The production profit has changed, and the inventory may continue to decline. The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that the Sino - US negotiation has made positive progress, the supply - side has tightened liquidity, and the demand - side has strong support [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4461 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton or - 1.00% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4571 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton or - 1.59% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 108 yuan/ton (down 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 12 US dollars/ton (up 20 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 301 yuan/ton (up 194 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific content provided in the given text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load remains stable at a high level, and the average polyester load in May may increase instead of decreasing, exceeding market expectations. The US textile and clothing orders from China have decreased significantly, and US orders are expected to partially recover [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 75.1 tons (down 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 66.4 tons (down 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.9 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 5.5 tons, so the inventory may continue to decline [1]