煤焦早报：焦煤上游持续累库，煤焦再度回落-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The total social financing in April still increased year - on - year, but the structure was mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the financing demand of the real economy declining. The external uncertainty caused by the US tariff increase in April may have reduced corporate risk appetite. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4] - After the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector showed a complex trend. In the absence of substantial benefits from supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, the black sector is likely to remain in wide - range fluctuations [4] - For coking coal, the supply pressure from imported coal persists, mines are not reducing production, and the demand from coke enterprises has weakened again. For coke, the first round of price cuts by steel mills has not been implemented, and the supply - demand gap has widened again, but the demand has a strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectations [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Spot and Futures: The spot price of coking coal is weakly stable, and the futures are moving sideways with a weak bias. The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is 1015 yuan/ton, the active contract is 883 yuan/ton, the basis is 152 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16 yuan/ton [2] - Supply: The operating rate of 523 mines is 89.92% (+0.18), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.42% (-0.55) [2] - Inventory: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 523 mines is 390.43 million tons (+31.39), the inventory of coal washing plants is 197.28 million tons (+3.39), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 787.21 million tons (+2.42), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 775.17 million tons (-35.11), and the port inventory is 397.81 million tons (-13.97) [2] 3.2 Coke - Spot and Futures: The first round of spot price cuts by steel mills has not been implemented, and the futures are moving sideways with a weak bias. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton, the active contract is 1472 yuan/ton, the basis is 78.22 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 26.5 yuan/ton [3] - Supply and Demand: Supply is decreasing, and demand is continuously increasing. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.05% (-0.38), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.6% (+1.45), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4564 million tons (+0.22) [3] - Inventory: The inventory across the entire industrial chain is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 65.09 million tons (-1.97), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 671.03 million tons (-4.19), and the port inventory is 229.08 million tons (-9.04) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - In the absence of substantial benefits from supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, the black sector is likely to remain in wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and closely monitor the rebound strength, and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]