烧碱：后期仍有压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6] Core View of the Report - The sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment determines the sustainability of the caustic soda price rebound, and future attention should be paid to the delivery volume of Weiqiao [5] - Caustic soda still faces pressure in the later stage, and supply cuts are needed to balance supply and demand after downstream inventory replenishment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On May 16, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2567, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 830, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2594, and the basis was 27 [1] Spot News - Since May 16, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been increased by 15 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 760 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - Short - term downstream inventory replenishment supports the rebound of caustic soda spot prices, but manufacturers do not follow the price increase, and the price difference between Weiqiao and the Shandong market narrows, which is bearish for caustic soda [3] - In the future, caustic soda will still be in a high - production pattern. In the second - quarter demand off - season, supply cuts are needed to balance supply and demand after downstream inventory replenishment [3] - In terms of demand, although the new alumina production capacity leads to a short - term increase in demand, profit losses lead to many manufacturer overhauls and shutdowns; non - aluminum demand is generally weak, and short - term demand in industries such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing may rebound month - on - month; exports can still strongly support caustic soda this year, but it mainly depends on the inventory rhythm [3] - From the supply side, there will still be new overhauls in May, but manufacturers' operating loads are generally high due to non - loss of profits; future attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply [3]