棉花：关注整体市场情绪的变化

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, tracking its fundamentals, presenting macro and industry news, and indicating a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 13,415 yuan/ton with a -0.22% daily increase and 13,410 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.04% increase; CY2507 closed at 19,700 yuan/ton with a -0.38% daily increase and 19,715 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.08% increase; ICE US Cotton 07 closed at 65.49 cents/pound with a -0.09% daily increase [1] - Transaction and Position Data: CF2509 had 280,491 transactions, a decrease of 26,087 from the previous day, and a position of 764,431, an increase of 3,176; CY2507 had 6,779 transactions, a decrease of 1,999, and a position of 21,156, an increase of 1,045 [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: Zhengzhou cotton had 11,546 warehouse receipts, an increase of 60, and 366 valid forecasts, a decrease of 111; cotton yarn had 35 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 35 [1] - Spot Price Data: Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or -0.21%; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or -0.21%; Shandong was priced at 14,547 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan or 0.32%; Hebei was priced at 14,361 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan or 0.22%; the 3128B index was priced at 14,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.28% [1] - Price Difference Data: The CF9 - 1 price difference was -75 yuan/ton, an increase of 15; the difference between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was increasingly sluggish, and the mainstream basis was stable. Different regions in Southern Xinjiang had different sales basis levels for 2024/25 cotton [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The transaction of pure cotton yarn improved, with 40 - count yarn performing relatively well. Spinning mills continued to raise prices, with an accumulated increase of 300 - 500 yuan/ton, and market confidence improved [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton first fell and then rose. The July contract was weaker than the December contract because the USDA's upward adjustment of old - crop exports was lower than market expectations, weakening the support for old - crop contracts [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3][4]