PVC：短期震荡，后期仍有压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - PVC will experience short - term fluctuations and face pressure in the later stage. Although there are some positive factors such as macro - level Sino - US phased reconciliation and short - term terminal product export rush, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate, and high - price transactions are slowing down [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - As of the report, the 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 5041, the East China spot price is 4880, the basis is - 161, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 103. The domestic PVC spot price has been raised this week. Due to positive macro expectations, rising industrial products, and improved export inquiries and deliveries of products, the price has increased. However, high - price transaction sentiment has weakened, and market sentiment is more watchful. Currently, the ex - warehouse spot price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4800 - 4950 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based price has stabilized at 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Positive factors: At the macro - level, Sino - US phased reconciliation is sentimentally positive, and short - term terminal product export rush supports the market [2]. - Negative factors: From a fundamental perspective, Northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term because the maintenance volume in the first quarter of PVC was low, and high - profit caustic soda demand in 2025 supports the chlor - alkali industry to offset losses in PVC. Moreover, there will be more new capacity put into production, especially in June. The high - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition pressure, affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3][4].