中辉有色观点-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and it is recommended to continue the previous interval trading idea [1]. - For copper, it is suggested to take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term, and there is still optimism in the medium - and long - term [1][6]. - Zinc's rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to try short positions lightly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [1][8]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure in the short term due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin's price rebound is under pressure as supply and demand situation is not favorable [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure. Short - term long positions at low prices can be considered for Shanghai Aluminum [1][10]. - Nickel's price rebounds and then falls. It is recommended to sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel [1][12]. - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation and is in the bottom - building stage in the medium - and long - term [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: US data is mixed, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine negotiations is unclear. Gold prices are in adjustment [2]. - Basic Logic: US retail growth slows down, PPI drops significantly, and geopolitical issues persist. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term bull market remains [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold may fluctuate after adjustment in the short term, and long - term investors should wait for stability. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8000, 8250] [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai Copper rebounds after being under pressure [5]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is unstable, and inventory situation is complex. There is a risk of price decline in mid - to late May [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term. Be cautious about high - level decline risk. Long - term outlook is positive. Shanghai Copper focuses on the range of [77500, 79500], and London Copper focuses on [9400, 9800] USD/ton [6]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc is in a volatile adjustment under upper pressure [7]. - Industrial Logic: Zinc supply increases while demand weakens as the consumption off - season begins [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Try short positions lightly at high levels in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term. Shanghai Zinc focuses on [22300, 22900], and London Zinc focuses on [2680, 2780] USD/ton [8]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure, and alumina rebounds from a low level [9]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, but demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in excess [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - term long positions at low prices for Shanghai Aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. Alumina is expected to be stable [10]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel's price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [11]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas environment eases, but domestic nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory removal pressure is large [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream consumption. Nickel's main contract operates in the range of [120000, 129000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2507 rises and then falls, testing the support of the 5 - day moving average [13]. - Industrial Logic: Demand is hard to exceed expectations, and lithium price is testing cost support. Supply has no significant reduction, and inventory pressure remains [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation in the range of [63750, 65102] [14].