China Post Securities·2025-05-16 02:16Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the overall operating income, pre-provision profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks for 2024 are expected to grow at rates of 0.08%, -0.72%, and 2.35% respectively. In Q1 2025, these growth rates are projected to decline to -1.72%, -2.15%, and -1.20%, indicating a downward trend in performance due to the impact of interest rate adjustments and market fluctuations [3][10][13] - The report emphasizes that the non-interest income growth of banks has slowed down due to market volatility, which has affected trading positions and overall performance [4][10] - The asset quality of listed banks is showing slight improvement, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing from 1.24% in 2024 to 1.23% in Q1 2025, and the overall provision coverage ratio remaining stable around 239.91% in 2024 and 237.92% in Q1 2025 [4][10][13] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Repricing and Market Fluctuations - The report notes that the combination of repricing impacts and market volatility has led to a decline in performance for Q1 2025, with significant drops in revenue and profit growth rates compared to 2024 [3][10] - The performance of city commercial banks has been notably better than other types of banks, with positive revenue growth in both 2024 and Q1 2025 [10][13] 2. Growth of Interest-Generating Assets - The growth rate of interest-generating assets for listed banks was 0.44% in 2024, with a slight increase to 0.79% in Q1 2025. However, the growth in deposits remained stable at 5.59% in 2024 and 6.22% in Q1 2025 [4][10] 3. Interest Margin Performance - The report indicates that both the yield on interest-generating assets and the cost of interest-bearing liabilities have decreased significantly in Q1 2025, affecting the interest margin performance across banks [4][10] 4. Non-Interest Income Growth - Non-interest income growth for listed banks was 6.71% in 2024, but it fell to -1.87% in Q1 2025, primarily due to the impact of market conditions on fee income and other non-interest revenues [4][10] 5. Asset Quality Improvement - The report highlights a slight improvement in asset quality, with a marginal decrease in the non-performing loan ratio and stable provision coverage ratios, indicating a cautious but positive trend in credit quality [4][10][13] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major state-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications, as well as regional banks like Chongqing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which may benefit from supportive fiscal policies [5][10]