饲料养殖产业日报-20250516

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of the feed and breeding industry are complex, with different trends and price fluctuations in various products such as live pigs, eggs, oils, soybean meal, and corn. In the short - term, most products face certain downward pressure, while in the long - term, the situation varies by product. [1][2][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Product Live Pigs - On May 16, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, while that in Guangdong remained stable. The supply is expected to increase in the later period as some farmers may accelerate the slaughter rhythm, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened. The demand is limited due to the hot weather and high pork prices. In the long - run, the supply will increase from May - September 2024, and the second - quarter slaughter pressure is still large. The strategy is to be bearish on rallies, with the 07 contract having a pressure range of 13800 - 14000 and a support range of 13200 - 13300; the 09 contract having a pressure range of 14300 - 14500 and a support range of 13600 - 13800. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract. [1] Eggs - On May 16, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the approaching Dragon Boat Festival may support the egg price, but the large new production in May and the non - increasing old chicken culling pressure the price. In the long - run, the supply from June - August 2025 is expected to increase due to high replenishment from February - April 2025. The 06 contract is slightly at a premium, and the strategy is to wait for a rebound to short lightly. The 08 and 09 contracts are bearish in the big picture. [2] Oils - On May 15, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures declined. The Malaysian palm oil has a large inventory build - up pressure due to a large production increase and weak exports in May. The domestic palm oil is expected to have a supply increase from May - June. The US soybean oil is affected by the uncertainty of the biofuel policy and international crude oil price, and the domestic soybean oil is expected to have inventory build - up from May - July. The Canadian rapeseed supply is tightening, but the domestic rapeseed oil has a high inventory. In the short - term, the domestic oils are in a downward trend but limited by positive factors; in the long - term, they may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to be cautious when shorting the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils and to exit the spread - widening strategy for the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil. [2][4][5] Soybean Meal - On May 15, the US soybean price was affected by the decline of US soybean oil. In the short - term, the US soybean has limited upside due to smooth sowing progress and South American bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to decline with the increase of supply. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price may be strong due to increased import costs and supply tightening. The strategy is to be bearish on rallies for the 09 contract before mid - June and bullish in the long - term, and to conduct a long 9 - short 1 spread strategy. [6] Corn - On May 15, the corn price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and that in Shandong Weifang Xingmao increased by 10 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the price increase is limited by the increased supply from traders, but there is support from the strong market sentiment. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive due to reduced production and imports, but the upside space is limited by substitutes. The strategy is to be bullish in general, with the 07 contract oscillating at a high level and the strategy of buying at the lower end of the range, and to conduct a long 7 - short 9 spread strategy. [7] 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of various futures and spot products showed different changes. For example, CBOT soybean decreased by 22.75 cents/bu, while CBOT corn increased by 3.50 cents/bu. [8]