中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel Products: Although sentiment has been boosted, supply and demand remain loose. For rebar, the market may return to fundamental trading, with demand entering the seasonal off - season after this week and supply potentially remaining high due to profit - driven high hot metal production. For hot - rolled coils, supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased significantly, and inventory has risen, with export at risk of decline [3][4]. - Iron Ore: The fundamental situation is weakening marginally, and the iron ore price will face pressure later. Terminal demand is weakening marginally, and the contradiction with high hot metal production is accumulating [7][8]. - Coke: Macro - level support is limited, and supply and demand remain weak. Even with high hot - metal production, coking coal and coke are still weak, and they will face greater pressure if hot - metal production peaks [10][11]. - Coking Coal: Although the Sino - US negotiation has made progress, the market may show a short - term shock. The supply is relatively loose, and demand may peak, so it may enter a bottom - consolidation phase after continuous decline [13][14]. - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, the port inventory of manganese ore is rising, and the start - up situation in low - cost areas needs attention. For ferrosilicon, cost support is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed [16][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar: Short - term shock, medium - term weakening. Price range: [3080, 3130]. The latest prices of rebar01, rebar05, and rebar10 are 3150, 3075, and 3118 respectively, with changes of - 5, 15, and - 9 [1][2]. - Hot - rolled Coils: Short - term shock, medium - term weakening. Price range: [3220, 3270]. The latest prices of hot - rolled01, hot - rolled05, and hot - rolled10 are 3272, 3265, and 3260 respectively, with changes of - 11, 0, and - 7 [1][2]. Iron Ore - Operation Suggestion: Short at high prices unilaterally and hold calendar spreads. Price range: [710, 745]. The latest prices of iron ore01, iron ore05, and iron ore09 are 698, 802, and 737 respectively, with changes of - 2, 6, and - 1 [1][6][9]. Coke - Operation Suggestion: Shock. Price range: [1430, 1580]. The latest prices of coke1 - month, coke5 - month, and coke9 - month contracts are 1498.5, 1520, and 1472 respectively, with changes of - 9.5, - 67.5, and - 10 [1][10][12]. Coking Coal - Operation Suggestion: Shock. Price range: [850, 885]. The latest prices of coking coal1 - month, coking coal5 - month, and coking coal9 - month contracts are 899, 850, and 883 respectively, with changes of - 12, - 0.5, and - 11.5 [1][13][15]. Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Price range: [5750, 6000]. The latest prices of ferromanganese01, ferromanganese05, and ferromanganese09 are 5926, 5806, and 5876 respectively, with changes of 8, 16, and 12 [1][16][18]. - Ferrosilicon: The price is expected to move within a range. Price range: [5570, 5750]. The latest prices of ferrosilicon01, ferrosilicon05, and ferrosilicon09 are 2630, 5550, and 5580 respectively, with changes of - 22, - 20, and - 22 [1][16][18].