铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market is influenced by a combination of factors including weak US economic data, geopolitical tensions, and trade policy uncertainties. Different commodities show diverse trends based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic impacts [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Overseas: US April retail sales had a 0.1% month - on - month increase, with weak consumer spending in optional categories. April PPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and dropped 0.5% month - on - month. The dollar index fell to 100.7, 10Y US Treasury yield to 4.43%. Gold rebounded nearly 2% after hitting a one - month low, oil prices dropped over 2% due to supply expectations, and copper prices rose. Powell mentioned policy framework adjustments and potential long - term interest rate hikes [2]. - Domestic: A - shares declined on low volume. The bond market saw rising Treasury yields despite the arrival of trillion - level reserve requirement ratio cut funds due to concerns about the central bank's policy shift [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rebounded. COMEX gold futures rose 1.74% to $3243.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.07% to $32.79 per ounce. Weak US economic data, a weaker dollar index, and increased geopolitical risk aversion drove the rise. Short - term price rebounds are expected, but prices are still in a phased adjustment [4][5]. Copper - LME copper inventory dropped to 186,000 tons. The global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2025. Codelco and Rio Tinto plan to explore a new copper project in Chile. With low inventory and some positive factors, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum futures rose 0.47% to 20,250 yuan/ton, while LME aluminum fell 0.93% to $2499/ton. Aluminum inventories decreased significantly. Weak US economic data increased macro - pressure, but inventory reduction supported prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be short - term strong but with limited upside [8][9][10]. Alumina - Alumina futures rose 4.93% to 2019 yuan/ton. Supply is tight due to enterprise maintenance and production cuts, and the market is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to supply - demand pattern changes [11]. Zinc - US economic data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting zinc prices. However, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate. Zinc prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [12]. Lead - Due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption in the off - season, the fundamental support for lead prices is insufficient. But the positive macro - environment supports short - term high - level consolidation [13]. Tin - The supply - demand of tin is currently in a weak balance. The short - term trend is strong but faces pressure from the 40 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to inventory data [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamental situation is bearish, with high inventory suppressing prices. Lithium prices may attempt a second downward breakthrough [18][19]. Nickel - The market has different expectations after the easing of tariff frictions. The supply surplus exists, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [20]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in supply from the potential US - Iran agreement. However, considering the current price level, it is not advisable to short Shanghai crude oil futures at present [21]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel demand has recovered but with limited strength. Supply is stable, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' demand is falling, and the supply is generally loose. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [24]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean crushing was higher than expected, and the drought in the US soybean - growing area increased. With weak domestic demand and falling Brazilian discounts, double - meal prices are expected to be weakly volatile [25][26]. Palm Oil - The sharp decline in US soybean oil prices drags down the palm oil market. Although Malaysian palm oil exports increased in the first half of May, the expected increase in domestic inventory in June may put pressure on prices. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [27][28].