格林大华期货铜贵金属早盘提示-20250516

Group 1: Copper Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core View - The global trade environment has improved, and the inventories of LME and SHFE copper have been continuously decreasing. The copper trade pattern is being reshaped, and the tight domestic supply supports copper prices. However, the resumption of US scrap copper imports to China suppresses copper prices. In an environment of supply shortages, loose domestic macro - economy, and increased structural investment, copper demand is expected to remain strong, and copper prices will continue to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] Summary by Related Catalogs - Market Review: Copper prices found support and strengthened. LME copper futures rose 0.08% to 9600, SHFE copper main contract rose 0.8% to 78490, and COMEX copper main contract rose 0.26% to 4.6935 [1] - Important Information: - US economic data: In April, US PPI increased 2.4% year - on - year (expected 2.5%, previous value revised from 2.70% to 3.4%), decreased 0.5% month - on - month (expected 0.20%, previous value revised from - 0.40% to 0%); the number of initial jobless claims last week was 229,000 (estimated 228,000, previous value 228,000); retail sales in April increased 0.1% month - on - month (estimated flat, previous value 1.5%) [1] - Fed's stance: On May 15, Fed Chairman Powell said they need to re - evaluate key factors in current monetary policy regarding employment and inflation due to past inflation and future supply shocks [1] - Scrap copper situation: With the temporary trade "truce agreement" between the US and China, a "copper mountain" of scrap copper in the US may start to move. In 2024, the US exported 600,000 tons of scrap copper, over half to China [1] - Copper rod orders: On May 15, the order volume of 31 domestic copper rod producers was 13,900 tons, up 8.40% from the previous day. The order volume of refined copper rods was 10,400 tons, up 26.39%, and that of recycled copper rods was 3,500 tons, down 23.78% [1] - Inventory changes: LME copper inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,700 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 8,602 tons to 80,705 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,523 tons to 168,600 tons [1] - Market Logic: The improvement of the global trade environment, the decline in copper inventories, and the strong domestic demand support copper prices, while the resumption of US scrap copper exports to China suppresses prices. Overall, copper prices will oscillate with a bullish bias [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in copper and add positions on dips. The range for LME copper is 9550 - 9700, and for SHFE copper main contract is 78200 - 79500 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly stated, but the market outlook implies a cautious stance [3] Core View - Although the tension in the international situation has cooled down, suppressing the safe - haven function of precious metals, factors such as the expectation of rising US inflation, uncertainties from tariffs, regional disputes, and continuous gold purchases by central banks support precious metal prices. Currently, precious metal prices have rebounded after finding support, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3] Summary by Related Catalogs - Market Review: Precious metal prices found support and rebounded. COMEX gold futures rose 1.99% to 3243.9 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 1.23% to 32.79 dollars/ounce, SHFE gold main contract rose 1.96% to 754.32 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver main contract rose 1.57% to 8134 yuan/kilogram [3] - Important Information: - US economic data: Similar to the copper section, including PPI, initial jobless claims, and retail sales data [3] - Fed's stance: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 8.3%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 63.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 34.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 2.6% [3] - International situation: Pakistan and India agreed to extend the cease - fire to the 18th [3] - ETF holdings: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust had some fluctuations on May 14, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 28.28 tons to 13,971.47 tons as of May 14 [3] - Market Logic: The cooling of international tension suppresses precious metal prices, while inflation expectations, uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases support prices [3] - Trading Strategy: Keep a wait - and - see attitude. COMEX gold is expected to trade between 3210 - 3300 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver between 32.4 - 33.4 dollars/ounce, SHFE gold main contract between 742 - 767 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver main contract between 8080 - 8250 yuan/kilogram [3]