Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical news affects oil prices frequently, and in the absence of an OPEC statement on July production policy, oil prices are expected to oscillate. Macro factors are currently stable, with short - term Brent expected to trade between $62 - 65 per barrel and medium - term between $60 - 70 per barrel [2]. - For asphalt, supply has increased while demand is stable. Low inventory supports spot prices and benefits the peak - season outlook. With oil prices under pressure, asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, and the asphalt/oil price spread may widen [6]. - LPG is under pressure due to lower oil prices, increased supply from the US, and decreased demand, especially in the chemical sector. The market is expected to operate weakly [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has abundant short - term supply in Asia but a medium - term supply gap. Seasonal power - generation demand is increasing. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is rising while demand is weak [11]. - Natural gas in the US is expected to oscillate weakly due to maintenance at export terminals, increased inventory, and slightly decreased production. European natural gas may oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and supply - demand factors [12][13]. - PX and PTA are expected to oscillate at high levels due to increased maintenance, improved downstream demand, and a widened supply - demand gap [14][18]. - Ethylene glycol supply has tightened due to maintenance, and demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to oscillate [19]. - Short - fiber and PR (bottle - chip) are expected to oscillate at high levels, following the trend of polyester raw materials [21][22]. - Styrene supply is tight, but market buying interest weakens at high prices. Future trends depend on demand in the off - season, inventory changes, and export orders [23]. - Polyolefins face large production - capacity pressure in the 09 contract. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium term [26]. - PVC is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but face an oversupply situation in the long term. Caustic soda is recommended for short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [30][31]. - Glass is in a supply - surplus situation, with weak downstream demand. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [33]. - Soda ash supply is increasing, and demand is lackluster. The 09 contract faces multiple pressures, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [35]. - Urea inventories are decreasing, and export policies are favorable. Buying on dips is recommended [38]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and be sold on rebounds in the long term [40]. - Pulp prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in the SP 07 contract [45]. - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 contract and long positions in the NR 07 contract [48]. - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 07 contract and reduce positions in the BR2507 - NR2507 spread [51]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2506 settled at $61.62, down $1.53 (-2.42%); Brent2507 settled at $64.53, down $1.56 (-2.36%); SC2507 closed at 471.7 yuan/barrel, down 6.6 yuan, and dropped 10.1 yuan in night trading to 461.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent front - to - second - line spread was $0.50 per barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump said the US is close to a nuclear deal with Iran, but an Iranian source said there are still gaps. Russia and Ukraine are to hold peace talks, and the IEA adjusted supply and demand forecasts [1][2]. - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical news affects oil prices, and without OPEC's July production policy, oil prices lack a clear trend and are expected to oscillate [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stabilizing; hold off on options [4]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2506 closed at 3469 points (+0.09%) in night trading, and BU2509 closed at 3403 points (+0.24%). Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - Related News: In Shandong, prices were stable, with increased refinery shipments. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable, and some refineries planned to cut production. In South China, prices were stable, and demand is expected to increase [4][5]. - Logic Analysis: Supply increased, demand was stable, and low inventory supported prices. Oil price pressure may limit asphalt price increases [6]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; the asphalt - oil spread is expected to strengthen; hold off on options [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2506 closed at 4278 (-0.53%) in night trading, and PG2507 closed at 4190 (-0.4%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [6]. - Related News: In South China, prices fell and may stabilize. In East China, prices declined slightly, and in Shandong, prices were mixed [7][8]. - Logic Analysis: Lower oil prices, increased supply from the US, and decreased demand in the chemical sector put pressure on the LPG market [9]. - Trading Strategy: Weak oscillation for single - sided trading [9]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 closed at 2991 (-1.16%) in night trading, and LU07 closed at 3596 (-1.18%). Singapore's high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads increased [9]. - Related News: Dangote refinery plans to sell fuel oil, Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - month low, and Russian exports decreased [10]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur supply is abundant in the short term but has a medium - term gap. Low - sulfur supply is increasing while demand is weak [11]. - Trading Strategy: Hold off on single - sided trading; take profits on the FU 9 - 1 calendar spread [11]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH closed at 3.358 (-3.72%), TTF at 35.294 (+0.7%), and JKM at 11.88 (-0.04%) [12]. - Related News: Maintenance at US export terminals led to a price drop, and inventory increased [12]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas is expected to oscillate weakly, while European natural gas may oscillate strongly [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Weak oscillation for HH single - sided trading, strong oscillation for TTF single - sided trading [13]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 closed at 6762 (-1.72%) and 6784 (+0.33%) in night trading. Spot prices decreased [13][14]. - Related News: Polyester product sales were weak, and PX and PTA operating rates changed [14]. - Logic Analysis: Increased PX maintenance and strong gasoline demand tightened the PX supply - demand structure, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [14]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; positive basis trading; hold off on options [15][16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 closed at 4798 (-1.56%) and 4816 (+0.38%) in night trading. Spot prices and basis were reported [16]. - Related News: Polyester product sales were weak, PTA and polyester operating rates changed, and some PTA plants planned to restart [16][17]. - Logic Analysis: Multiple PTA plant maintenance, improved downstream demand, and a widened supply - demand gap support high - level price oscillation [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; positive basis trading; hold off on options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 closed at 4461 (-1.00%) and 4503 (+0.94%) in night trading. Spot and futures basis were reported [19]. - Related News: Polyester product sales were weak, and the ethylene glycol operating rate decreased [19]. - Logic Analysis: Maintenance tightened supply, and improved demand is expected to lead to a better supply - demand pattern and port de - stocking [19]. - Trading Strategy: Hold off on options [20]. Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2507 closed at 6570 (-0.82%) and 6586 (+0.24%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [20]. - Related News: Polyester product sales were weak, and downstream operating rates changed [21]. - Logic Analysis: Follow the trend of polyester raw materials and oscillate at high levels [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [21]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - Market Review: PR2507 closed at 6116 (-1.35%) and 6140 (+0.39%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [21]. - Related News: Polyester bottle - chip factory export prices were adjusted [22]. - Logic Analysis: New production capacity increases supply pressure, but demand is supported, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [22]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [22]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2506 closed at 7739 (-0.09%) and 7808 (+0.89%) in night trading. Spot prices and basis were reported [23]. - Related News: Styrene and downstream operating rates changed [23]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is tight, but market buying interest weakens at high prices. Future trends depend on multiple factors [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [24]. Polyolefins - Market Review: L2509 closed at 7298 (-0.56%) and 7271 (-0.37%) in night trading; PP2509 closed at 7161 (-0.44%) and 7140 (-0.29%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [25]. - Related News: Operating rates, inventory levels, and market rumors were reported [25][26]. - Logic Analysis: New production capacity exerts pressure, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium term [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation in the short term, bearish in the medium term for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: SH509 closed at 2567 (+1.46%) and 2541 (-1.01%) in night trading; V2509 closed at 5041 (+1.10%) and 5006 (-0.69%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [28]. - Related News: Price adjustments and market changes were reported [29][30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but face an oversupply situation in the long term. Caustic soda is recommended for short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: Hold off on spreads and options; short - term strong oscillation and long - term short - selling for PVC; short - term observation and medium - term short - selling for caustic soda [32]. Glass - Market Review: The glass 09 contract closed at 1036 (-0.96%) and 1025 (-1.06%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [32]. - Related News: Market prices were stable with minor fluctuations, production and inventory data were reported [32][33]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is in surplus, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term [33]. - Trading Strategy: Short - selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [34]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda ash 09 contract closed at 1330 (-1.1%) and 1323 (-0.5%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [34][35]. - Related News: Market trends, production, inventory, and profit data were reported [35]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is lackluster, and the 09 contract faces multiple pressures [35]. - Trading Strategy: Short - selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads; sell both calls and puts for options [36]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures closed at 1892 (+0.32%). Spot prices were reported [37]. - Related News: Capacity utilization rates changed, and export - related discussions were held [38]. - Logic Analysis: Inventories are decreasing, and export policies are favorable [38]. - Trading Strategy: Buying on dips for single - sided trading [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2318 (-0.77%). Spot prices were reported [41]. - Related News: MTO capacity utilization increased [40]. - Logic Analysis: International supply increases, domestic supply is loose, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and be sold on rebounds in the long term [40]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term observation, long - term selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads; sell calls for options [42]. Pulp - Market Review: The SP 07 contract closed at 5370 (-0.30%). Spot prices were reported [42][44]. - Related News: The paper industry showed signs of improvement [44]. - Logic Analysis: Prices are expected to oscillate [45]. - Trading Strategy: Take profits on long positions in the SP 07 contract; hold off on spreads [45]. Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - Market Review: RU 09 closed at 15075 (-0.10%); NR 07 closed at 12835 (-0.04%). Spot prices were reported [46]. - Related News: The European automotive market is stagnant [47]. - Logic Analysis: Tire production and inventory data were reported [47]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the RU 09 contract and long positions in the NR 07 contract; hold off on spreads and options [48]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR 07 closed at 12405 (+0.40%). Spot prices were reported [49]. - Related News: The European automotive market is stagnant [50]. - Logic Analysis: Tire production and inventory data were reported [50]. - Trading Strategy: Observe the BR 07 contract; reduce positions in the BR2507 - NR2507 spread; sell the BR2507 put 11200 contract [51][53].
银河期货原油期货早报-20250516
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-16 02:51