第一太阳能（FSLR）：组件销量稳步增长，在手订单保持充裕

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for First Solar [5][3][32] Core Views - First Solar's component sales are steadily increasing, with a robust order backlog and production capacity expansion [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of $4.21 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a net profit of $1.29 billion, up 56% year-on-year [7][3] - Despite short-term uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies and renewable energy subsidies, long-term demand for solar energy remains strong [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, First Solar reported revenues of $840 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, but a 44% decrease quarter-on-quarter [7][3] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 44.2%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 30.7%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points [7][3] - The forecast for 2025-2026 net profits has been revised down to $1.58 billion and $1.95 billion, respectively, due to uncertainties in subsidy policies [3][32] Sales and Orders Summary - First Solar's component sales reached 14.1 GW in 2024, a 24% increase year-on-year, with a unit selling price of $0.297 per watt [15][2] - As of Q1 2025, the company had an order backlog of 66.1 GW, with potential orders tracked at 81.0 GW [2][24] - The company plans to increase its production capacity to 25 GW globally by 2025, with significant expansions in Louisiana [2][27] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to $14.72, $18.20, and $23.25, respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 13.1, 10.6, and 8.3 [3][32] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 19.1%, 12.0%, and 21.8%, respectively [4][32] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 18.0% in 2025 to 19.5% in 2027 [4][32]