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荣昌生物:主要产品新增适应症,上调收入与盈利预测-20250516

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" with a target price of HKD 45.00 for Rongchang Biologics (9995 HK) [4][5]. Core Insights - The approval of the new indication for Vidisicimab in treating HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer with liver metastasis is expected to boost product sales significantly [1]. - The company has made progress in clinical trials for new indications, including a Phase III study for Vidisicimab in combination with Toripalimab for advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma [2]. - The Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue increasing by 59.1% year-on-year to RMB 530 million, and a reduction in net loss by 27.2% to RMB 250 million [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 3.2% and 4.8%, respectively, while net loss projections have been lowered by 5.2% and 13.5% [4]. - The company anticipates total revenue to reach RMB 1,076 million in 2023, growing to RMB 3,798 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 40.2% from 2023 to 2024 [11]. - The projected net loss is expected to decrease from RMB 1,511 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 29 million by 2027 [11]. Stock Information - The current closing price is HKD 39.20, with a market capitalization of HKD 26,972.99 million [5]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 10.2 to HKD 46.90 [5].