五矿期货早报有色金属-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic equity market weakened, and the growth of US retail sales slowed down. Precious metal prices stabilized, and copper prices rebounded after a decline. Aluminum prices oscillated and corrected. The short - term upward trend of copper prices is difficult, and the rebound height of aluminum prices is restricted. Lead prices show a strong short - term oscillation. Zinc prices rebounded slightly. Tin supply is expected to loosen, and if demand remains weak, the price center may shift down. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish view. Lithium carbonate prices face pressure, and the disk may continue to test the industry's acceptance. Alumina supply has disturbances, and a long - short strategy is recommended. Stainless steel prices rose, but the long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season cycle [1][3][4][6][9][10][12][14][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose slightly by 0.08% to $9600/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,490 yuan/ton. The expected price range is 77,800 - 79,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and $9500 - 9700/ton for LME copper [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by nearly 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 61,000 tons [1]. - Market situation: The spot in Shanghai turned to a premium over futures, and the demand in Guangdong was weak. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained at about 250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.93% to $2499/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,220 yuan/ton. The expected price range is 20,100 - 20,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum and $2460 - 2520/ton for LME aluminum [3]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2025 tons to 397,275 tons [3]. - Market situation: The spot in East China was at a premium over futures, and the overall destocking speed was fast, but the demand improvement may face challenges [3]. Lead - Price: The SHFE lead index rose 0.20% to 16,971 yuan/ton, and LME lead rose to $1984.5/ton. It is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton in the medium term [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased to 56,000 tons, and the SHFE lead inventory was 49,400 tons [4]. - Market situation: The lead concentrate port inventory increased, the production of primary lead enterprises was high, and the production of recycled lead enterprises decreased [4]. Zinc - Price: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.49% to 22,494 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose to $2755/ton. Zinc prices rebounded slightly [6]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 86,300 tons, and the SHFE zinc warehouse receipts remained at a low level [6]. - Market situation: The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the processing fee rose, and the Russian Longxin lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices [6]. Tin - Price: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 265,210 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The expected price range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for domestic contracts and $30,000 - 33,000/ton for LME tin [8][9]. - Inventory: The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 16 tons to 8163 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 30 tons to 2745 tons [8]. - Market situation: The mine supply is expected to loosen, and the restocking willingness of the electronics and home appliance industries is low due to tariffs [9]. Nickel - Price: The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 125,230 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and LME nickel closed at $15,805/ton, up 0.03%. The expected price range is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and $15,000 - 16,300/ton for LME nickel [10]. - Market situation: The price of nickel ore was stable, the demand for high - nickel pig iron weakened, and the price of nickel continued to be bearish [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index was flat at 64,727 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 64,120 yuan, down 1.66%. The expected price range is 63,400 - 65,200 yuan/ton [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory increased by 351 tons to 131,920 tons, and the production remained high with great inventory pressure [12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 1.56% to 2987 yuan/ton. The expected price range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10,500 tons to 193,300 tons [14]. - Market situation: The supply is disturbed, and a long - short strategy is recommended [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,995 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The profit of steel mills improved, but the downstream demand did not increase substantially [16]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.42% to 1.1083 million tons [16].