光大期货能化商品日报-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various energy - chemical products are expected to be volatile. Geopolitical easing and slowing demand growth have put pressure on oil prices, while other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost changes [1][2] - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur market has strong demand support, and attention can be paid to the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread. For asphalt, although the price may be stable in the short term, the upward space is limited. For polyester, the PTA price may be weakly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price is strengthening. For rubber, it shows relative weakness. For methanol, the price will recover but still face upward pressure. For polyolefins and PVC, they will tend to be volatile [2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI June contract fell $1.53 to $61.62 per barrel (down 2.42%), Brent July contract fell $1.56 to $64.53 per barrel (down 2.36%), and SC2506 closed at 461.6 yuan/barrel, down 16.9 yuan/barrel (down 3.53%). Optimistic progress in US - Iran negotiations and changes in supply - demand forecasts have led to downward pressure on oil prices [1] - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts declined. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories decreased. Although the high - sulfur market has strong demand support, the low - sulfur has shown stronger performance recently. Consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [2] - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract fell 1.45% to 3466 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and the northern demand will slightly increase, while the southern demand is affected by rainfall. The price may be stable in the short term, but the upward space is limited [2] - Polyester: TA509 and EG2509 prices declined. PX prices also fell. PTA device restarts are increasing, and downstream high - start sustainability is weak. PTA prices may be weakly volatile, while ethylene glycol prices are strengthening [4] - Rubber: On Thursday, rubber - related contracts declined. Overseas production areas are affected by rainfall, and downstream tire factory starts have recovered, but natural rubber shows relative weakness [4] - Methanol: Supply is at a high level, and Iranian device loads have declined. MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and traditional downstream starts are relatively stable. The price will recover, but there is still upward pressure [5] - Polyolefins: The prices of polyolefins have increased. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure has been released. After the price recovery, they will tend to be volatile due to the weakening of oil prices [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The prices in the PVC market have increased. Supply is at a high level, and domestic real - estate construction is temporarily stable, but the subsequent off - season is approaching. The upward space is limited [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for multiple energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on May 15, 2025 [8] 3.3 Market News - On May 15, 2025, US President Trump said that Iran had agreed to some conditions of the nuclear - related agreement, and the US was in serious negotiations with Iran to achieve long - term peace. Iran is willing to make certain commitments in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions [10] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that this year's global oil supply will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 380,000 barrels per day compared to the previous forecast [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through multiple charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [12][13][16] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Multiple charts show the basis trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [28][33][37] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report presents the spread trends of different contracts for various energy - chemical products through multiple charts, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc [44][46][49] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Multiple charts show the spread and ratio trends between different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [60][61][66] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE through charts [69][70][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in different energy - chemical product research fields [76][77][78]