FICC日报：主要船司发布6月涨价函，聚焦高运力下的实际价格落地情-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Main shipping companies have issued price increase notices for June, and the 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of price increases, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US routes. Some shipping capacity has overflowed to European routes, but the US routes' capacity has rebounded in June, which may ease the pressure on European routes [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - As of May 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 123,385 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 248,496 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1449.00, 1273.20, 1787.30, 2359.30, 1464.70, and 1611.20 respectively [4][5] Spot Prices - On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU, and 3 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU [5] - In June, the capacity on the European routes is relatively high, and the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes has increased significantly compared to May. The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU, and the average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June is 294,000 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is in direct talks with the US to reach an agreement to end the Gaza conflict. If a permanent cease - fire is achieved, Hamas can hand over control of the Gaza Strip [1] Demand and European Economy - Not elaborated in detail in the content, but factors such as the US tariff policy adjustment and the situation of the Gaza conflict may have an impact on demand and the European economy [1][3][4]