Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-16 03:18Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - With China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity approaching the upper limit of 45 million tons, overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has become the main variable in global supply. The report aims to analyze the operating conditions of major overseas aluminum smelting enterprises and predict the supply trend [2][4]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is highly concentrated and mainly located in regions rich in energy resources. Currently, with sufficient energy supply and an improved aluminum market, the overall overseas electrolytic aluminum operating rate is rising. However, due to the high capacity utilization rate, the production increase from capacity expansion is limited. Existing capacity increments may come from Europe, North America, Latin America, and Africa. In terms of new capacity, the Middle East, India, and Indonesia in Southeast Asia have clear and large - scale expansion plans, which are expected to be important sources of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply growth [2][34]. 3. Company - Specific Summaries 3.1 Rusal - Rusal is a leading global aluminum company, ranking third in global aluminum smelting production in 2024 with an output of nearly 4 million tons, accounting for about 5.5% of the global total [5]. - Its smelting plants are mainly in Russia (Siberia and Ural regions) and overseas. In 2024, its existing aluminum plants had an operating capacity of 42.05 million tons with a utilization rate of 95%, leaving limited room for further improvement [6][7]. - In 2024, Asia was its largest sales market, accounting for 42.9%. Due to sanctions from Europe and the United States, it sold more aluminum ingots to Asia, especially China, where its revenue from China accounted for 30.7% in 2024, up from 6.4% in 2021 [12]. 3.2 Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto is a leading global mining and metal company and one of the top ten global aluminum producers, with a complete industrial chain from bauxite mining to electrolytic aluminum smelting [14]. - Its electrolytic aluminum plants are mainly in Australia, Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, and Oman, mostly using hydropower. In 2025, its planned production is basically the same as in 2024 (equity production of about 3.3 million tons). It is also promoting the expansion of the Arvida AP60 project in Canada, which will add 160,000 tons of capacity and is planned to be put into operation in the first half of 2026 [15][16]. 3.3 Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) - EGA is the largest aluminum company in the Middle East and one of the top ten global electrolytic aluminum producers. In 2024, it produced 2.69 million tons of electrolytic aluminum with relatively stable production [17][20]. 3.4 Vedanta Resources - Vedanta Aluminium, a subsidiary of Vedanta Resources in India, is the largest aluminum producer in India and one of the top ten global electrolytic aluminum producers. In 2024, its total output was 2.417 million tons, a 2.4% increase from 2023. In 2025 Q1, its aluminum production remained stable. It is promoting the expansion of the Balco aluminum plant (adding about 410,000 tons of capacity), planned to be put into operation in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year, with a long - term plan to increase annual capacity to 3 million tons [21]. 3.5 Alcoa - Alcoa is a leading global aluminum company with a wide - ranging business. In 2024, its electrolytic aluminum output was about 2.215 million tons, and in Q1 2025, it was about 564,000 tons. In 2025, with the further increase in the smelting plant operating rate, it plans to produce 2.3 - 2.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum [22][24]. 3.6 Hydro - Hydro is the largest comprehensive aluminum group in Europe and a global leader, focusing on low - carbon hydropower aluminum. In 2024, its production at various plants showed different levels of output, with the Slovalco plant in Slovakia having no electrolytic aluminum output [25][28]. 3.7 Alba - Alba is a leading global aluminum smelting enterprise. In 2024, its output was 1.622 million tons, higher than in 2023. In Q1 2025, its output was 397,000 tons, with a slight decline. It is now aiming to increase capacity by renovating old production lines and installing new electrolytic cells [29]. 3.8 Hindalco - Hindalco is a comprehensive aluminum company in India and one of the lowest - cost aluminum producers globally. In 2024, it produced 1.327 million tons of electrolytic aluminum. It announced an investment plan in the 2024 fiscal year general meeting to expand its aluminum and copper smelting capacity, including expanding the Aditya aluminum smelting capacity by about 200,000 tons [30]. 3.9 South32 - South32 is a global mining and metal enterprise. Its electrolytic aluminum business is mainly in Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique. In 2024, its production at different plants varied, with the Alumar plant in Brazil having an output of 118,000 tons (40% stake), the Hillside plant in South Africa having an output of 723,000 tons, and the Mozal plant in Mozambique having an output of 326,000 tons (63.7% stake) [31]. 3.10 Press Metal - Press Metal is the largest integrated aluminum producer in Southeast Asia. Its aluminum smelting plants are in Malaysia, with an annual capacity of about 1.08 million tons, all powered by hydropower, making it an important provider of low - carbon aluminum [32].