农产品日报-20250516

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. The spot market sentiment is divided, with the expectation of strong spot and weak futures. A short - selling strategy can be maintained for futures [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - Oils are expected to be weak. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support egg prices in the short term, but the egg prices are likely to be weak later due to the Mei - yu season and increasing supply [2][3]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Corn: On Thursday, the July corn contract decreased with reduced positions. The domestic average corn price is 2365 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. Northeast prices are stable, North China prices are generally stable, and the prices in the sales areas are rising. Technically, the futures price is in high - level volatility, and a short - selling strategy can be maintained [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans tumbled from a 10 - month high, and soybean oil hit the daily limit down. The U.S. biodiesel policy may be less than expected. The domestic protein meal is strong. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil, Canadian rapeseed, and CBOT soybean oil declined. The domestic oil futures prices are falling, and the basis is expected to continue to decline. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - Eggs: On Thursday, the 2506 egg contract declined by 1.23%, and the 2509 contract rose by 0.13%. The spot price is slightly down. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support prices in the short term, but the prices are likely to be weak later [2][3]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the main pig contract closed with a medium - sized阴线, and the September contract continued to move sideways. The Henan market price is down slightly, and pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3.2 Market Information - In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 4.2 percentage points year - on - year, and the proportion of soybean meal decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased by 6.63% - 14.21% compared with the same period last month according to different institutions [4]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index declined. The average pork price remained the same, and the egg price increased by 1.5% [5]. - The expected biodiesel mandatory blending volume may be 46 - 48 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 55 - 57.5 billion gallons [2][5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents charts of 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][8][10][13]. - Contract Basis: The report presents charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][22][27].