Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, remaining roughly flat at $9,600/ton; SHFE copper futures gained 0.13% to CNY 78,490/ton. US inflation data was lower than expected, and the Fed's flexible attitude towards inflation was seen as a signal for interest rate cuts. Domestically, attention should be paid to the performance of the financial market. LME copper inventories decreased by 925 tons, while COMEX inventories increased by 1,381 tons. SMM's Thursday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventories increased by 0.89 million tons to 13.20 million tons, ending the continuous destocking trend. With copper prices rising and the expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season, downstream procurement was cautious, and terminal demand orders might gradually slow down. Although the macro - expectation continued to improve, the domestic copper downstream demand showed some weakness. The upward movement of copper prices might be hindered. However, the better - than - expected progress in Sino - US trade negotiations was expected to continue to boost risk appetite, and copper prices were expected to be briefly boosted, with the upward range still seen at CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton. When copper prices approached the upper limit of the range, it might bring selling hedging opportunities for the mid - and upstream [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended strongly with oscillations. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 2,985/ton, up 0.17%, and the open interest increased by 13,002 lots to 338,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended weakly with oscillations. Overnight, AL2506 closed at CNY 20,220/ton, down 0.07%, and the open interest increased by 1,633 lots to 203,000 lots. The SMM alumina price rebounded slightly to CNY 2,936/ton. The spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 60/ton. There were new maintenance activities in Shanxi and Guangxi's alumina. The main contract shifted to the 09 contract, and the market was trading the expectation of ore production restrictions during the rainy season in Guinea. Aluminum ingot arrivals were low, and downstream restocking occurred after price cuts, so aluminum ingots continued to be destocked slightly. The alleviation of the Sino - US tariff situation improved the macro - sentiment. However, the decline in photovoltaic subsidies and the weakening of new export orders, along with the pressure of cost reduction, meant that the short - term strong and long - term weak pattern of aluminum prices continued. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption situation and subsequent tariff negotiation dynamics [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.03% to $15,805/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.16% to CNY 125,230/ton. LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons, while domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 205 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium decreased by CNY 50/ton. Nickel ore prices were still strong, with premiums rising in both the Philippines and Indonesia. In the stainless - steel sector, there was a slight reduction in the supply of the 300 - series, and the weekly inventory decreased slightly. In the new - energy sector, the supply of raw materials recovered, the MHP price declined, and the spot profit of nickel sulfate slightly improved, but the demand for ternary precursors in May decreased slightly month - on - month. Domestically, primary nickel inventories decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and overseas destocking was obvious. The production in May was expected to decrease slightly. In the short term, the macro - sentiment improved, and the Philippine nickel - ore event attracted market attention again, so nickel ore was relatively strong, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish. However, the nickel - iron transaction price continued to decline, and if domestic primary nickel inventories continued to accumulate, the pressure on nickel prices would gradually become prominent, and the overall trend was still oscillatory [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Copper: The macro - situation in the US showed lower - than - expected inflation data, which was regarded as a signal for interest rate cuts. Domestically, the financial market performance was a focus. Inventory changes were mixed, and downstream demand was cautious. The upward movement of copper prices might face resistance, but short - term boosts were possible due to trade negotiation progress [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices were strong, while Shanghai aluminum was weak. There were new maintenance activities, and the market was trading the Guinea ore - restriction expectation. Aluminum ingots were destocked slightly. The short - term strong and long - term weak pattern continued due to various factors [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices rose slightly overnight. Inventory changes were different in different regions. Nickel ore was strong, but nickel - iron prices declined. The new - energy sector had mixed signals. The overall trend was oscillatory in the short term [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On May 15, 2025, compared with May 14, 2025, the price of flat - copper decreased by CNY 180/ton, and the premium increased by CNY 40/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by CNY 100/ton, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by CNY 63/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 925 tons, while COMEX inventories increased by 1,382 tons. The total domestic + bonded area inventories increased by 0.3 million tons [5]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 60/ton. The prices of lead concentrates in different regions increased by CNY 50/ton. The LME lead inventories remained unchanged, while the SHFE lead inventories increased by 2,718 tons [5]. - Aluminum: On May 15, 2025, compared with May 14, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, the Nanhai - Wuxi spread decreased, and the spot premium increased. The price of alumina FOB increased by $11/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by CNY 20/ton. LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,025 tons, and SHFE aluminum warrants increased by 1,397 tons [6]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 250/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel against Wuxi increased by CNY 1,250/ton. The price of nickel ore remained stable. LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons, and SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 205 tons [6]. - Zinc: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.0%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by CNY 60/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premiums decreased by CNY 80/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75/ton. The SHFE zinc inventories increased by 793 tons, and the social inventories increased by 0.08 million tons [7]. - Tin: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.3%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,100/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 700/ton. The SHFE tin inventories decreased by 190 tons [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Spot Premium: There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11]. - 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: There are charts showing the SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. - 3.3 LME Inventories: There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - 3.4 SHFE Inventories: There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - 3.5 Social Inventories: There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - 3.6 Smelting Profits: There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - products futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity - research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by multiple media. His team has won many awards [47]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous metal researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and disclosure, and provides high - quality services to listed companies [47]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous metal researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations [48].
有色商品日报-20250516
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 03:23