2025年4月美国CPI数据点评：通胀冲击等待中发酵

Inflation Data Summary - In April 2025, the nominal CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, below the expected 2.4% and down from the previous value of 2.4%[5] - The core CPI remained stable at 2.8% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%[5] Food and Energy Prices - Food inflation year-on-year recorded a growth of 2.8%, slightly down from 3% in the previous month, but the trend is expected to reverse based on historical data from the UN food price index[5] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, influenced by significant drops in global economic growth expectations due to tariff policies[5] Core Inflation Insights - Core goods prices showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, exiting the deflation zone, while core services inflation decreased from 3.7% to 3.6% year-on-year[5] - The super core inflation, excluding major housing rents, dropped from 4% at the beginning of the year to 2.7%, indicating weak domestic demand[5] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Response - The market anticipates a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding inflation risks, with a June rate cut probability at only 8.2%[5] - The inflation impact from tariffs is expected to be delayed, with a 1% tariff translating to approximately a 0.1% increase in inflation[5]